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江苏神通(002438):Q4业绩表现亮眼 盈利能力显著改善 期待公司核电业务逐渐放量

Jiangsu Shentong (002438): Excellent Q4 performance, significant improvement in profitability, expected gradual expansion of the company's nuclear power business

方正證券 ·  Apr 24

Incident: The company issued its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and realized net profit of 269 million yuan, an increase of 18.16% over the previous year. The performance was in line with expectations.

Fourth quarter results were impressive, and profitability improved markedly. Looking at a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 590 million yuan in 23Q4, an increase of 16.18% over the previous year, and net profit to mother of 67 million yuan, an increase of 38.7% over the previous year, and the growth rate increased markedly. In terms of profit level, the company's gross sales margin for the full year of '23 was about 31.69%, up 1.85pct year on year, net sales margin 12.6%, up 0.96pct year on year, and profit level improved markedly. 23Q4 gross sales margin was 34.9%, up 4.07pct year on year, 4.47pct higher than Q3, Q4 net sales margin 11.41%, up 1.85pct year on year, and slightly down 2.6 pct month-on-month, mainly due to higher Q4 expenses.

The nuclear power business is growing steadily and is expected to expand further in 24 years. In 2023, the company's nuclear power business achieved revenue of 694 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, gross profit margin of 40.3%, and a slight decrease of 1.1 pct year-on-year, but remained stable. In 2022 and 2023, 10 units were approved for two consecutive years. According to the pace of nuclear power valve bidding and delivery, 2024 is expected to enter a major year of nuclear power equipment delivery. We look forward to the company's expansion in the nuclear power business.

The energy equipment industry achieved revenue of 650 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12%, gross profit margin of 11.59%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.13 pcts. The metallurgical industry achieved revenue of 364 million yuan in 23 years, down 22% year on year due to industry sentiment, but gross margin reached 32%, up 1.71 pct year on year. In terms of energy saving and environmental protection business, the company achieved revenue of 260 million yuan in '23, an increase of 64% over the previous year, and achieved volume. Mainly, the Handan project began sharing benefits in the second half of the year.

Furthermore, in 2023, the company obtained additional orders of 2,916 billion yuan, an increase of 20.8% over the previous year. Among them, Shentong Nuclear Energy was 803 million yuan, up 17.3% year on year compared with the nuclear power and military industry division's order of 687 million yuan in 2022, the energy equipment division's order of 211 million yuan, an increase of 15.9% year on year, and orders for nuclear power and energy equipment increased steadily. Wuxi Flange added 705 million yuan in orders, a slight decrease of 8.7% year on year, and Ruifan Energy added 746 million yuan in orders, an increase of 158.1% year on year.

Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 24.4, 27.3, and 3.06 billion yuan in 2024 to 2026, and net profit of 350, 4.2, and 5.1 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 17.97/14.83/12.31 times, respectively, and maintain the “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of nuclear power unit approval falling short of expectations, risk of product delivery falling short of expectations, risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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