原料药保持稳健增长，化学制剂核心品种销量保持增长。2023 年，公司原料药板块收入为32.5 亿元，同比增长3.7%，毛利率为35.49%，同比增长0.14 个百分点。2023 年，化学制剂板块消化道/促性激素/精神/抗感染产品收入分别为29.0 亿元/27.7 亿元/6.0 亿元/2.9 亿元，同比-15.5%/+6.8%/+10.5%/-25.5%，主要由于部分产品受到医院处方量下降影响。公司核心品种注射用艾普拉唑钠、马来酸氟伏沙明片、盐酸哌罗匹隆片销量保持稳健增长。此外，公司注射用曲普瑞林微球新进入2023 年国家医保目录。2023 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced its 2023 results: operating income of 12.43 billion yuan, down 1.58% year on year; net profit to mother of 1,954 billion yuan, up 2.32% year on year, or 2.11 yuan per share; after deducting non-net profit of 1,881 billion yuan, up 0.05% year on year, the results are in line with our expectations.
Development trends
APIs have maintained steady growth, and sales of core chemical formulations have continued to grow. In 2023, the company's API segment revenue was 3.25 billion yuan, up 3.7% year on year, and gross margin was 35.49%, up 0.14 percentage points year on year. In 2023, the revenue of digestive tract/gonadotrophic/psychotic/anti-infective products in the chemical sector was 2.90 billion yuan/2.77 billion yuan/60 billion yuan/290 million yuan respectively, -15.5%/+6.8%/+10.5%/-25.5%, mainly due to the decline in hospital prescriptions for some products. Sales of the company's core products of injectable eprazole sodium, fluvoxamine maleate tablets, and piropirone hydrochloride tablets maintained steady growth. In addition, the company's injectable triprorelin microspheres are newly included in the 2023 national health insurance catalogue.
The traditional Chinese medicine sector is growing rapidly. In 2023, the company's revenue for traditional Chinese medicine formulations was 1,745 billion yuan, an increase of 39.19% over the previous year, mainly due to high terminal demand for core products. Gross margin was 68.62%, up 1.37 percentage points year over year. The company continues to distribute Shenqi Fuzheng injections at the grassroots level, and antiviral granules are making concerted efforts in pharmacies and online channels.
In terms of research and development, the company's potential varieties have increased its layout. In 2023, the company's R&D expenses reached 1.33 billion yuan.
According to the company's annual report, as of March 2024, injectable ariprazole microspheres have been declared for marketing and have been subject to registration verification. The diabetes indications for simeglutide injection are in clinical phase III, and the weight loss indications have been approved for clinical trials. The recombinant anti-human IL-17A/F humanized monoclonal antibody is currently in phase III clinical phase.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We kept the 2024 net profit forecast of 2.21 billion yuan unchanged, with a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and introduced a 2025 net profit forecast of 2.43 billion yuan, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year. We maintain the company's A shares and H shares outperform the industry ratings. Considering the strength of the Chinese medicine sector and the focus on the research pipeline, we raised the target price of A shares by 10.9% to 44.8 yuan (corresponding to 2024/2025 18.8 times/17.0 times price-earnings ratio) and raised the target price of H shares by 4.9% to HK$30.12 (corresponding to 11.3 times/9.7 times price-earnings ratio in 2024/2025). The current A share price corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 15.7 times/14.2 times the 2024/2025 price-earnings ratio, with 20.1% upside compared to the target price; the H share price corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 9.4 times/8.1 times 2024/2025, with 20.0% upside compared to the target price.
risks
The product launch progress fell short of expectations, the progress of research pipelines fell short of expectations, and the pressure to collect and reduce prices exceeded expectations.