Incident: On April 23, 2024, the company released its report for the first quarter of 2024. The report shows that in 2024Q1, the company achieved operating income of 7.975 billion yuan, up 5.97% year on year, down 17.43% month on month; in 2023, net profit to mother was 482 million yuan, up 163.39% year on year, up 3.43% month on month. 2024Q1 profit performance exceeded expectations.
The month-on-month fluctuations in 2024Q1 revenue were mainly due to fluctuations in sales volume, and steady year-on-year sales growth: Fluctuations in the company's revenue were closely related to fluctuations in sales volume. Among them, the sales volume of the company was 74,000 units, of which 1.72, 1.37, 1.87, and 247 thousand light buses, light trucks, pickup trucks, and SUVs were sold, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.87%, -18.13%, +50.12%, and -1.66%. The sharp increase in pickup truck sales was mainly due to the launch of Ranger pickup trucks. 2024Q1
2023Q1's total sales volume increased 3.43% year over year, down 16.41% month on month. The month-on-month sales decline was mainly due to spring disturbances in the first quarter.
2024Q1's overall cost control was steady, compounded by minority shareholders' profit and loss, and the profit performance exceeded expectations: on the year-on-year basis, the gross margin of 2024Q1 was 12.29%, the year-on-year change was -1.09pcts, the net interest rate was 3.00%, the year-on-year change +0.93pcts, the expense ratio was 10.38%, the year-on-year change was -0.79%, and the year-on-year expense control was steady. On a month-on-month basis, the company's gross margin fell 3.13 pcts month-on-month. We believe that the decline in gross margin was mainly due to price wars and raw material costs. The net margin fell 1.06 pcts month-on-month, and the cost ratio increased 2.33% month-on-month, mainly due to the low level of the 2023Q4 R&D expense category. The net interest rate performance was significantly superior to gross margin mainly due to minority shareholder gains and losses, income tax policies, 2023Q4 asset impairment losses, and other revenue impacts caused by the subsidiary's payment of Bronco's exclusive management rights.
Jiangling Ford Ranger and Bronco have been launched one after another, and the Ford brand's export sales are growing rapidly, and it is expected to continue to contribute to profit growth in the future: Ford's next-generation pickup Ranger was officially launched in December 2023, starting at 145,800 yuan. In addition, Ford recently officially announced that it has opened pre-orders for all of its new Liema Bronco models. The pre-order price range is 30-450,000 yuan, which has a significant price advantage over competitors such as Wrangler and Land Rover Defender. Bronco will launch 5 versions, including the Everglades, with a total of 7 models, and the new cars will be officially launched at the end of April. Furthermore, the company's Ford brand SUVs are exported to Southeast Asia, Latin America and other regions. As Ranger and Bronco go public one after another, export sales have increased, and the company's performance is expected to grow again.
Profit forecast: The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 423, 490, 53.1 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 18.51, 20.71, and 2,484 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 13.72, 12.26, and 10.22 times, respectively, giving it a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Competition in the passenger car industry intensifies, sales fall short of expectations; commercial vehicle sales fall short of expectations; new product launch progress falls short of expectations, etc.