The total profit for 1Q24 coal, electricity, and electricity was 3.1 points. The overall net profit to mother was +104.25% of the 1Q24 company's revenue/net profit under China's accounting standards was 653.67/4.596 billion yuan (subsequent descriptions other than profit forecast/ valuation were A-share data under China's accounting standards), +0.15%/+104.25% year over year, with net profit attributable to mother of 0.2 billion yuan higher than our expected maximum value of 4.576 billion yuan. In 1Q24, the company's coal and electricity sector achieved a total profit of 2,825 billion yuan, corresponding to a total profit of 3.1 points, exceeding the highest profit level in a single quarter last year (total profit of 2.6 points for 3Q23).
The unit price forecast for imported coal was lowered, and the company's net profit from 24-26 to mother was adjusted to 125/137/15.7 billion yuan (previous value: 121/134/15.7 billion yuan). The company's BPS is expected to be 4.37 yuan after deducting perpetual bonds in 2024. It is optimistic that the company's long-term development of the new energy business and the continuous recovery of thermal power performance will give the company 1.2x 2024EPB, which is about 2 standard deviations higher than its historical average (0.74x). The target price is HK$5.78 (previous value: HK$5.74). Maintain “buy-in.”
1Q24 coal and electricity feed-in electricity volume was +3.05% year over year, total coal electricity/combustion engine electricity profit was 3.1/7.5 in 1Q24, and the company completed feed-in electricity volume of 113,036 billion kilowatt-hours, +5.63% year over year, of which coal/gas engine feed-in electricity volume was +3.05%/-1.73% year over year to 922.67/7154 million kilowatt-hours; we think the main reason is 1) grid-connected affordable projects increased and lowered average feed-in electricity prices for new energy sources 2) season The flexible adjustment capacity of cogeneration units is limited, and the acquisition rate of capacity electricity prices has not reached 100%; 3) The coal price center has moved downward, and the electricity price of coal and electricity may have declined slightly year-on-year. However, 1Q24's total coal and electricity profit was 2,825 billion yuan, close to 3Q23's 2,843 billion yuan. The total profit for 1Q24 coal, electricity, and electricity was 3.1 points, higher than 2.6 points in 3Q23. Thanks to the decline in natural gas prices, 1Q24's total combustion engine electricity profit reached 7.5 points.
1Q24 grid-connected wind/photovoltaic 869.05/736.8MW, total wind power profit +25.41% YoY 1Q24. The company added 869.05/736.8MW of grid-connected wind/photovoltaic installed capacity, driving the company's wind/photovoltaic feed-in capacity to increase 24.08%/73.73% year-on-year to 100.28/3.22 billion kilowatt-hours. The company achieved total wind power/photovoltaic profit of 2,414/370 million yuan in 1Q24, +25.41%/+6.99%. The year-on-year growth rate of total PV profit was far lower than the year-on-year growth rate of feed-in electricity. We believe that it is mainly due to the relatively low capacity of PV stock projects, and the addition of grid-connected affordable projects lowered the average PV feed-in price. In 1Q24, the company's financial expenses maintained a downward trend, falling 79.47 million yuan to 2,048 billion yuan; investment income in joint ventures increased 150 million yuan to 381 million yuan year-on-year.
Risk warning: coal prices are higher than expected; market-based electricity prices/coal and electricity capacity prices/hours of use/new scenery projects fall short of expectations; risk of asset impairment is calculated.