The “Buy” rating was reiterated, and the target price remained at HK$3.10. We maintain China Construction Development's (“Company”) earnings forecast per share for 2024/2025/2026 at HK$0.338/HK$0.445/ HK$0.541, respectively. We maintain our target of HK$3.10, which is equivalent to 7.7 times/6.0 times/4.8 times 2024/2025/2026 EV/EBITDA.
The number of new contracts signed in the first quarter of 2024 increased 4.9% year over year to HK$3,697 billion. 1) Revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was HK$2,031 million (+17.7%), operating profit was HK$432 million (+30.8%), and new contracts signed were HK$3,697 million (+4.9%). As of March 31, 2024, active contracts were HK$17.618 billion (+16.4%). 2) The company maintains an advantageous position in the Hong Kong and Macau markets, continuing to undertake public infrastructure projects, and also undertakes new contracts for private projects such as the Macau Rehabilitation Hospital and Sun Hung Kai West Kowloon Art Plaza Tower. 3) The company continues to expand high-quality projects in the mainland market and won the bid for the world's largest indoor ski resort (Shenzhen Qianhai Huafa Ski Resort metal roof). 4) The company is steadily expanding overseas markets and has begun bidding in Singapore. 5) Further promote the application of BIPV in the Mainland market and Hong Kong market (Hong Kong Castle Peak Road Sound Barrier - PV Retrofit).
We anticipate that by 2030, the company's total revenue, shareholders' net profit and newly signed contracts may reach HK$25 billion, HK$3 billion, and HK$35 billion respectively. The façade business will remain the cornerstone of the company, while BIPV and other technology-driven emerging businesses will continue to increase their contributions.
Catalysts: 1) Due to increased emphasis on safety, inspection, maintenance, and refurbishment of old facades may bring new business opportunities; 2) Overseas markets such as Singapore and Middle Eastern countries may bring significant revenue contributions.
Risks: 1) Government infrastructure spending may fall short of expectations; 2) Overseas project risk.