2023 年第一季度，公司实现营业收入22.62 亿元，同比减少25.03%，环比减少38.53%；归母净利润1.35 亿元，同比减少82.55%，环比减少54.90%；扣非归母净利润1.34 亿元，同比减少82.72%，环比减少61.43%。Orchid Technology Innovation released its 2023 Annual Report and 2024 Quarterly Report on April 22, 2024:
In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 13.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.16%; net profit to mother of 2,098 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.93%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 2,123 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.82%; and net cash flow from operating activities was 2,673 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.11%. Basic earnings per share were 1.41 yuan, down 50.00% year on year; weighted average ROE was 13.05%, down 9.52 percentage points year over year.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 3.68 billion yuan, up 35.71% year on year, up 17.38% month on month; net profit to mother of 299 million yuan, a decrease of 35.74% year on year and a decrease of 31.50% month on month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 347 million yuan, up 6.99% year on year and 21.06% month on month.
In the first quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 2,262 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.03%; net profit to mother of 135 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 82.55% and a decrease of 54.90% month-on-month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 134 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 82.72% and a decrease of 61.43% month-on-month.
Coal business: Reduced prices and rising costs are putting pressure on performance, and climbing new mines is expected to drive production growth.
In 2023, coal production was 13.8033 million tons, up 20.46% year on year; coal sales were 12.99 million tons, up 11.65% year on year. The selling price of a ton of coal was 739 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.75%; the sales cost of a ton of coal was 328 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.23% over the previous year. Gross profit per ton of coal was 412 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 36.43%. The Yuxi Coal Mine (2.4 million tons/year) reached production, leading to a high increase in coal production in 2023. The increase in coal supply from external mining and insurance, the Yuxi coal mine reached production, and Tongbao and Qinyu were put into operation, leading to an increase in the cost of coal products.
2023Q4 coal production was 3.8 million tons (+46.54% YoY, +7.02% month-on-month), coal sales volume was 4.1 million tons (YoY +35.52%, YoY +21.04%), the price of a ton of coal was 715 yuan/ton (-14.88% YoY, -4.73% month-on-month), the cost of a ton of coal was 377 yuan/ton (+23.79%, +22.93% month-on-month), gross profit per ton of coal was 339 yuan/ton (YoY -36.84%, -10.08% month-on-month). Q4 The price of tons of coal fell year on year, leading to a decline in gross profit of tons of coal.
2024Q1 coal production was 3.12 million tons (YoY +6.96%, month-on-month -17.96%), coal sales volume was 2.38 million tons (-4.46% YoY, -40.58% month-on-month), and the price of tons of coal was 631 yuan/ton (-30.33% YoY, -11 month-on-month.
73%), the cost of a ton of coal was 365 yuan/ton (+22.74% year over month, -3.00% month on month), and gross profit per ton of coal was 266 yuan/ton (-56.29% year on year, -21.43% month on month).
Looking forward to the future, the two 900,000 tons/year resource-integrated mines, Tongbao and Qinyu, were officially converted to production mines in November 2023 and January 2024, respectively; Baisheng Coal's 900,000 ton/year mine was basically completed and officially entered into joint trial operation in March 2024; Luhe Coal's 900,000 ton/year mine phase II began construction, and construction of various projects progressed in an orderly manner, and coal production is expected to continue to increase rapidly.
Coal chemical business: Urea production and sales both increased, and cost reduction led to improved profits.
Urea production in 2023 was 970,000 tons, up 18.92% year on year; urea sales volume was 980,000 tons, up 19.16% year on year; sales price of tons of urea was 2,250 yuan/ton, down 8.73% year on year; ton urea sales cost was 1,871 yuan/ton, down 11.63% year on year; gross profit of tons of urea was 379 yuan/ton, up 8.91% year on year. Caprolactam production was 100,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.20%; sales of caprolactam were 100,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.63%; the price of a ton of caprolactam was 10,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.95%; the sales cost of a ton of caprolactam was 1,1513 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.54%; gross profit of a ton of caprolactam was -598 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.86% year on year.
2024Q1 urea production was 220,000 tons (+1.05% YoY, +1.10% month-on-month), urea sales volume was 190,000 tons (-6.16% YoY, -19.92% month-on-month), the price of urea was 2028 yuan/ton (-20.12%, -9.90% month-on-month), the cost of a ton of urea was 1,579 yuan/ton (-10.79% YoY), and the gross profit per ton of urea was 449 yuan/ton (YoY +67.29%, -6.66% month-on-month). The production of caprolactam was 30,000 tons (+6.40% YoY, +23.72% month-on-month), the sales volume of caprolactam was 25,400 tons (+2.83% YoY, +10.43%), the price of caprolactam was 1,1846 yuan/ton (+11.67% YoY, +5.39%), the cost of a ton of caprolactam was 1,1885 yuan/ton (-6.34% YoY, +2.66% month-on-month), and the gross profit for a ton of caprolactam was -39 yuan/ton (+8.9% YoY, +8.9％) (+88.33% month-on-month).
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Considering the decline in coal prices, we have revised our profit forecast for 2024 to 2025.
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 144.55 billion yuan, 15.6.17 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan, respectively, and realized net profit to mother of 21.52, 24.94, and 2,770 billion yuan, respectively (the original forecast values for 2024 to 2025 were 39.73 and 46.
(4.1 billion yuan, plus 2026 profit forecast). Earnings per share are 1.45, 1.68, and 1.87 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 10.76 yuan, corresponding PE is 7.4X/6.4X/5.8X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of a sharp drop in coal prices, falling short of expectations in production capacity releases, and untimely updates of information data used in research reports.