China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd's (SHSE:601098) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.1x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 30x and even P/E's above 53x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
China South Publishing & Media Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
China South Publishing & Media Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 31% last year. As a result, it also grew EPS by 28% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 1.0% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 35% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that China South Publishing & Media Group's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Final Word
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of China South Publishing & Media Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for China South Publishing & Media Group with six simple checks.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.