Incidents:
Fangsheng Pharmaceutical announced on April 20, 2024: In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.12%; net profit to mother was 187 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.64%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 134 million yuan, an increase of 25.35% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%; net profit to mother of 70 million yuan, an increase of 10.04% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 54 million yuan, an increase of 9.61% year on year.
Investment highlights:
Focusing on the main Chinese medicine industry, it continues to unleash growth potential. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.12%; net profit to mother was 187 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.64%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 134 million yuan, an increase of 25.35% year-on-year. Among them, the fourth quarter of 2023 was 414 million yuan, down 4.77% year on year; net profit to mother was 45 million yuan, up 69.87% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 12 million yuan, down 66.09% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 438 million yuan, an increase of 0.37%; net profit to mother of 70 million yuan, an increase of 10.04% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 54 million yuan, an increase of 9.61% year on year.
Focus on the main business to improve profitability, and actively return shareholders to the pharmaceutical industry's revenue of 1,439 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 88.35%. This is an increase of 7.84 pct over the same period last year, an increase of 8.20% net interest rate after deducting non-return mother's net interest rate, and an increase of 2.26 pct over the same period last year. In 2023, the company paid two dividends, totaling 128 million yuan. The dividend ratio reached 68.27%, which positively returned shareholders. Since the company went public, it has paid cash dividends of varying proportions every year. So far, 13 dividends have been distributed, with a total dividend of about 487 million yuan (tax included, including current annual dividends).
Strengthen the innovative development of traditional Chinese medicine. Since then, companies that have enriched products under development will continue to promote the development of innovative traditional Chinese medicine medicines. The reserves of products under development are abundant, and progress is progressing smoothly. Among them, phase II clinical research on Hirulong Tongluo tablets is progressing smoothly. Nolitong tablets are undergoing phase III clinical trials, Noriton granules are undergoing long-term toxicity tests, and clinical trials of the addition of pediatric Jingxing cough tablets for adults are progressing smoothly (phase II has completed 330 cases), hemostatic and analgesic granules are undergoing pharmaceutical research, and Yiki Anti-tumor tablets have been declared for clinical trials in April 2024.
Profit forecast and investment rating We expect the company to achieve operating income of 1,999 billion yuan, 2,344 billion yuan and 2,774 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and realized net profit of 294 million yuan, 302 million yuan, and 390 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE valuations are 16.83X, 16.41X, and 12.70X, respectively. As the company continues to focus on its main business, reform results are beginning to appear, operating efficiency has been effectively improved, and the “buy” rating has been maintained.
Risks indicate policy risks in the pharmaceutical industry. The volume of core products falls short of expectations, the implementation of the “338 Project” falls short of expectations, the company's profitability falls short of expectations, product development falls short of expectations, the risk of changes in the company's management, and the risk of loss of core talent.