Incident Overview
Recently, the company released the 2023 Annual Report & 2024 Quarterly Report. The 2023 revenue was 3.355 billion yuan (+11.3%), net profit to mother was 295 million yuan (+6.5%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 242 million yuan (+153.4%), which is in line with our expectations.
23Q4 revenue in a single quarter was 971 million yuan (+5.7%), and net profit to mother was 94 million yuan (-45.8%). 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 752 million yuan (+20.6%), net profit to mother of 92 million yuan (+219.9%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.29 million yuan (+4.4%), which is optimistic about the company's annual performance.
Profitability continues to increase, and sales of cyclopofol are steadily increasing
According to the annual report, ciclopofol injection (sisunin) achieved revenue of 850 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 25.3% of revenue, and has now covered more than 2,000 hospitals. According to Pharmaceutical Rubik's Cube data, as of 2023, Sishuning's share in the intravenous anesthesia market has increased from 4% in 2022 to 11%, and its market share has surpassed medium/long chain propofol. In 2023, Si Shuning passed national negotiations, and 2 new indications were successfully entered into medical insurance. By the end of 2023, all of its indications had entered the national health insurance catalogue.
HSK7653 (Beichangping) is expected to be approved for marketing on 24H1. In 2023, preparations for marketing have been fully initiated to establish the “First Choice for Simplified Treatment for Type 2 Diabetics”; the HSK16149 (Simining) diabetic neuralgia drug is expected to be approved for marketing on 24H1, and preparations for internal and external marketing have also been carried out. In 2023, Sifu (polyene phosphatidylcholine injection) and Tribifu (dolasetron mesylate injection) completed the transformation of the sales model, fully recycling hospital terminals and switched to a professional academic promotion model for self-operated teams; continuous investment in R&D, and abundant reserves of ongoing research projects
As of 2023, the company has 46 drug development projects, including 24 innovative drugs and 2 improved new drugs; the main treatment fields are: 16 digestive tract and metabolism, 3 neurological systems, 11 tumor systems, 3 blood and hematopoietic organs, 10 respiratory systems, 1 dermatological drug, 2 other systems; 12 Class 1 innovative drug products entering the clinical stage; in 2023, in addition to commercialization stage products and clinical research projects, the company has more than 30 projects in the screening stage, and there will be multiple projects in 2024 Make an IND filing. In 2024, the company's multiple R&D pipelines progressed rapidly, and catalysts were abundant.
Investment advice
We adjusted the profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024-2025 is 40.9 billion yuan and 4.96 billion yuan (previous values were 41.0 billion yuan and 4.84 billion yuan), corresponding growth rates were 21.9% and 21.4%, respectively; net profit to mother was 4.1 billion yuan and 550 million yuan (previous values were 390 million yuan and 50 million yuan), corresponding growth rates were 40.3% and 34.9%, respectively; EPS was 0.29 and 0.35 yuan (previous values were 0.37 and 0.50 yuan); additional 2026 revenue was 5.95 billion yuan, and net profit to mother was 8.6 billion yuan At 100 million yuan, EPS was 0.77 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 26.4 yuan/share on April 22, 2024, PE was 71/53/34X, respectively; maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning
The pace of expansion is lower than expected; risk of medical accidents or negative industry events; increased risk of industry competition; risk of industry policy risks; in October 2020, the actual controller and chairman of Hisco and HiCisco were at risk of being issued a warning letter by the Tibet Securities Regulatory Authority due to a breach of credit disclosure.