The sales performance of down jackets during the peak season exceeded expectations, and the company raised its annual performance guidelines. As temperatures have picked up since the beginning of the year, the peak season for down jacket sales in 23-24 has basically come to an end. Bosideng's down jacket sales performance is impressive. Judging from terminal sales, down jacket revenue has exceeded expectations. During the year, the company achieved outstanding results in TOP strategy implementation, channel adjustment and product innovation: 1) At the TOP strategic level, the company opened more than 100 new TOP stores, with an average store efficiency of over 9 million yuan/year. 2) At the level of channel optimization, the company continues to adjust the ratio of direct management and franchise stores. On the one hand, it selects high-quality franchisees to further sink the franchise channel into the market; on the other hand, the high-quality operation of direct management channels, combined with the TOP strategic style of play, the efficiency of direct stores is expected to continue to improve during the year. 2) At the level of product innovation, we continue to develop lightweight down jackets and jackets to further broaden the sales cycle and regional audience of down jacket products. In summary, we expect the revenue growth rate of Bosideng's main brand down jacket FY24 to exceed 30%, so we raised our profit forecast for the whole year.
Optimistic about the sales performance of the sunscreen category in the spring and summer of '24, the sunscreen business is expected to become the company's second growth curve.
According to Jiuqian Zhongtai data, Bosideng's sunscreen sales have been impressive since the beginning of the year. From January to March 2024, sales of Bosideng sunscreen clothing on the Tmall platform were +349%/-14%/+41% year on year, while sales of Bosideng sunscreen clothing on the JD platform were +770%/+709%/+237% year-on-year respectively. As the temperature rises, the second quarter will officially enter the peak sales season for sunscreen clothing. The company currently has three sunscreen series: hot sun series, urban outdoor series and outdoor camping series, which can meet various wear scenarios such as urban commuting and outdoor sports, and target a wide range of audiences. In FY23, the company's sunscreen revenue was about 500 million yuan, an increase of more than 300% over the previous year. We believe that FY24 will further enhance the performance of the sunscreen category by expanding a new product line and developing sunscreen business channels, and is expected to continue to increase its revenue contribution to the group.
Our view: Under the company's strategic goal of adhering to brand leadership and consolidating the positioning of the world's leading down jacket experts, the branded down jacket business is expected to grow at high quality, the OEM OEM business will continue to contribute to revenue growth, and the women's clothing business and diversified brand business are steady, moderate and positive. We expect FY2024-2026 revenue to be 21.63 billion yuan/24.97 billion yuan/28.35 billion yuan, respectively, +29.0%/+15.5%/+13.5% YoY; net profit to mother will be 2.83 billion yuan/3.45 billion yuan/3.99 billion yuan, respectively, +32.4%/+21.9%/+15.7% YoY, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: weather changes, macroeconomic impacts, new product launches falling short of expectations, changes in consumer preferences