The company disclosed the annual report for the year 23 and quarterly report for the year 24, with 23FY revenue of 4.98 billion yuan, yoy +19%, net profit due to mother of 780 million, yoy +25%, net profit of non-return mother of 740 million, yoy +5%, net profit due to mother 160 million, yoy +25%, qoq -29%, net profit of non-return mother of 150 million, yoy +25%, qoq -33%. 24Q1 revenue of 1.27 billion, yoy +3%, qoq -3%, net profit due to mother of 220 million, yoy +33%, qoq +37%, net profit of non-return mother 210 million, yoy +36%, qoq +39.1%.
24Q1 performance continued to increase, with revenue under slight month-on-month pressure, or disrupted by fluctuations in revenue from non-core businesses.
Revenue from major medicinal glass products increased rapidly in 23 years. Overseas revenue growth was impressive. 23FY molded bottles/ampoules/control bottles/brown bottles/butyl rubber stoppers/plastic bottles with aluminum-plastic caps earned 22.6/0.7/2.0/11.2/2.6/60 million, yoy +29%/+18%/+13%/-3%. Major pharmaceutical glass products have all achieved high growth. The demand for borosilicate was driven by two batches of procurement within 23 years, and the boom in overseas regional pharmaceutical glass demand is also making an important contribution. 23FY domestic and overseas revenue of 35.8/1.36 billion, yoy +17.1%/26.4%.
23Q4 cost increases affected profit margins in stages. 24Q1 profitability increased 23FY gross profit margin by 28.0%, yoy+1.2pct; 23Q4 gross profit margin 27.5%, yoy+4.7pct, qoq-3.2pct. 23FY molded bottle/ampoule/tube bottle/brown bottle/butyl rubber stopper/aluminum-plastic cap plastic bottle have gross margins of 39.2%/5.7%/-1.7%/23.8%/24.6%/35.0%, respectively, yoy-0.6/-2.0/-11.2/+3.0/+8.3/+3.9pct, respectively. The cost rate increased slightly, yoy+0.4pct to 8.8%. 23FY net profit margin 15.6%, yoy+0.8pct; 23Q4 net profit margin 12.3%, yoy+2.0pct, qoq-5.9pct.
24Q1 gross profit margin 30.6%, yoy+6.9pct, qoq+3.0pct; expense ratio yoy+1.5pct to 8.9%; net profit margin to mother 17.4%, yoy+4.0pct, qoq+5.1pct. 23Q4 Higher repair costs (including operating costs) and excess profit accrual expenses (included in management expenses) put a phased pressure on profitability from month to month. 24Q1 incentive fund accrued expenses increased (management expenses yoy+1.3pct to 4.4%), the impact of repair costs is expected to decrease drastically, and profitability improved markedly from month to month.
Molded bottle leaders are in a stable position, and there is room for momentum for growth. To maintain the “purchase” rating, we expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be 57.7/67.5/7.99 billion yuan, YOY +16%/17%/18% respectively, net profit to mother of 10.2/12.3/1.5 billion yuan, YOY +31%/20%/23%, EPS 1.53/1.85/2.27 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 25%. The company has a stable position as a leading molded bottle, and the expansion of borosilicate production capacity is accelerating or fully enjoying the dividends of the industry.
Expanding categories into overseas markets has been very effective, and the growth prospects are worth looking forward to. Referring to comparable company valuations, maintain the company's target price of 38.43 yuan for 24 years, corresponding to 25 times PE in 24 years, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: raw fuel costs fluctuate greatly, demand falls short of expectations, competition intensifies risks, exports fall short of expectations