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欲度人心,先度自己——如何破除投资中的主观偏见

If you want to win people's hearts, put yourself first — how to break down subjective prejudice in investing

紅與綠 ·  Apr 23 22:51

From a philosophical point of view, we usually call the kind of judgment that starts from the perspective of an individual's position “subjective”; instead, a judgment that abandons personal prejudice and covers all relevant data is called “objective.” Or directly call something that exists independent of human consciousness objective, and vice versa, subjective.

Even if we start from the former definition, we can't draw an objective judgment that is necessarily the only truth, because the so-called coverage of all data can we judge the authoritative and comprehensive nature of “all relevant data.”

On the other hand, objectivity derived from different subjects will also vary due to differences in environmental culture and times.

For example, we “objectively” think that with the development of scientific and technological knowledge, the level of human civilization and intelligence is constantly improving, but compared to Confucius Aristotle, is there any reckless subjectivity in saying that people today are definitely smarter than the ancients?

Therefore, some philosophers think that so-called objectivity is nothing more than a consensus reached by a group of subjects, or their shared beliefs. Nietzsche's “perspectivism,” on the other hand, simply believes that all knowledge must start from a specific perspective, so there is no objectivity at all.

Although the difference between objectivity and subjectivity is quite controversial in the field of philosophy, the relevant propositions in the stock market are basically much simpler in my opinion. Of course, this is also my personal “subjectivity.”

The stock market is nothing more than a group of professional and amateur investors with varying capital levels and different mentalities, ideas, and methodologies. People in the stock market have their own understanding of the stock market; there are all kinds of strange things. Some people think that the stock market is a place for conspiracy theories; there is a superpower that can do everything and set up traps everywhere. Some people think that the stock market is a casino, so you need to choose an easy version of the game table to play cards. Some people think that the stock market is a reaction of the government's will, so trading stocks should listen to what the Party says.

Some people think that the stock market is a paradise for value investors, and that speculators' momentary pride must not last long. Therefore, the essential task of investing is to master valuation tools and be aware of the macro, medium, and micro aspects. Some people think that the stock market is nothing more than graphical fluctuations in a bunch of codes, and all information is covered in the graph. Some people think that the true meaning of the stock market is simply a human struggle, and that gaming behavior from the perspective of financial behavior is more efficient.

Some people think that everything in the stock market has a fixed number. The so-called future is all unknown is actually in the magic box of all kinds of technical tools. The only difference is that you need to find the only key to open the treasure box. Some people think that the investment system is above everything else, and even any general or fundamental considerations are under the authoritative standards of the system.

Some people think that an intuitive sense of market is rooted in talent and experience, and is a supreme investment treasure that only I can respect. Some people think that all price fluctuations can be quantitatively judged; financial engineering is science that directly attacks the essence of the market.

Some people have no idea at all; they see that Zhang San and Li Si can make money by being dumb, so I want to come in and make some money even if I close my eyes. Some people think that the stock market is nothing more than holding hands, following the right people, and getting reliable stock news, you can naturally make a fortune easily.

It can be seen that this diverse group of people and investors full of subjective prejudice forms the “objective truth” of the stock market. That is, the stock market is originally a gathering place for subjective ideas, and the stock market is inherently infinitely close to a subjective world.

Therefore, in the end, the judgments we see in our own eyes and make in our hearts are all subjective, so when subjective voices with different opinions interfere with our own emotions or even anger, we shoot a case. In the end, it is neither wise nor objective.

Therefore, when we talk about a stock market that is infinitely close to a subjective world, if we still have an objective foothold, it is nothing more than that we should be honest about the one-sided nature of our own opinions and calmly accept and understand opinions that are different from our own.

Or we can acknowledge that the truth of the unknown world is not in our speculations or apparently very logical and persuasive arguments. The evolution of everything in the world has its own laws of evolution where profits and losses are not transferred by our personal will. This is already a rational demonstration of our ability to be in a subjective world and strive for an objective attitude.

Further, we think that Soros said that the entire economic history of humanity is a history of deception. How can we understand it from a subjective and objective perspective? We might as well understand that the decisions of those responsible for economic and financial affairs in various countries are subjective, and the understanding of the market is also subjective. These two different subjectives interact and influence each other, forming what Soros called rebelliousness, and reflexivity itself can in turn affect the development of fundamentals.

In other words, based on a subjective decision, the market arrived at a different understanding of this. Various subjective opinions agreed to understand the expected subjectivity, which in turn affected the direction and outcome of the situation.

So, the stock market, as a subjective world of confusion, anticipation, understanding and eventually reaching consensus, is just an important scene in this history of human deception. How can it independently reflect the objective truth of an absolute truth? Therefore, the myth of market efficiency personifies Mr. Market, who exists like a god, thinking that the market can naturally make smart choices, but this is just a subjective belief, but it must be a departure from objectivity itself.

As a mature investor, we should remind ourselves that we are in the subjective world of the stock market. While we have the freedom to express our subjectivity, we should abandon the illusion of always being close to the objective truth of the future.

For example, the short-term fluctuation in the stock market is the momentary rise and fall of individual stocks; the answer lies neither in oneself nor in others. Therefore, break superstitions about individuals or others, and don't try to understand and control everything.

However, retail investors like to hear more than this or the other; buy or sell when to buy and when to sell, and only scammers have simple and painful answers. When you feel that you don't have any answers, you should consciously lower your expectations and only refer to them; if the results aren't ideal, you can only accept your life and think that the person you trusted is not complaining because of this. Not only is it unwise and unobjective, but it's also a sign of being unfair and unkind.

In a stock market full of subjective will, personal experience is an invaluable asset. In particular, the kind of experience that is good at learning, thinking, summing up and hardening helps us identify all kinds of human nature with significant flaws in the subjective world and warn against our confused behavior itself. Emotional infections, so-called greed, fear, paranoia, and even self-abandonment, will eventually amplify subjective will and further interfere with sanity, moving further and further away from objectivity.

But apparently, in a stock market that is infinitely close to the subjective world, it is difficult to remain objective.

Here, we're actually putting more emphasis on an empirical rule and extracting wisdom from it. Just as philosophers argue about subjectivity and objectivity, subjectivity is not necessarily a derogatory term, but putting too much emphasis on subjectivity from a personal point of view and putting it in a market of subjective will where consensus is reached. There are examples of waiting to prove market mistakes, but in general, it is difficult to be optimistic in terms of results.

For example, being in a bull market requires simply emphasizing the margin of safety; being in a bear market requires strengthening the illusion of personal skills or refusing to compete repeatedly. This is another inappropriate subjectivity.

Therefore, once again, objectivity in stock market investment actually means that empirical rules guide our own investment behavior. If personal experience is not enough to grasp the rules of objectivity, it is nothing more than using discipline to restrain investment behavior from a human perspective.

Behind this discipline, it is actually supported by the ideas and experiences of various investment masters who share the same path, such as letting profit run and cutting off losses; or following the trend and not fighting against the trend. Everything such as this is an attitude of striving for objectivity in a subjective world. This attitude itself helps us win more and lose less in the stock market, which is essentially a probabilistic event, not that we are infinitely close to the unknown objective inevitability of acting based on this.

As I often say to my friends, one of the major signs of so-called mature people is their habit of thinking empathically and accommodating different opinions, and not always considering issues from their own standpoint, or the use of empathy. Similarly, when we want to mature in the stock market and eventually achieve a successful double harvest of spirit and wealth, we should always maintain self-awareness and insight into the narrow and one-sided paranoia shown by individual subjectivity.

If you want to win people's hearts, put yourself first.

When we always try to learn from our experiences in awe of the unknown without being arrogant; we are more tolerant and humble; when we know how to understand that our ignorance is not harmful to our face, we are clear and studious; when we learn to maintain a consistent objective attitude in a subjective world full of chaos and human defects, rather than clouds or butts determine our heads — so in a subjective world or objective truth where the vast majority of people are losers, we may be closer to success as a result.

Editor/Jeffrey

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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