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万孚生物(300482):重磅新品获批 看好后续表现

Wanfu Biotech (300482): Major new product approved, optimistic about subsequent performance

華泰證券 ·  Apr 22

The company's COVID-19 influenza A and B triple test professional product was authorized by the US FDA EUA and issued an announcement on April 22. Its US subsidiary's novel coronavirus, influenza A virus, and influenza B triple test kit obtained emergency use authorization (EUA) from the US FDA, marking that the product has successfully completed performance and clinical verification in the US and has officially obtained permission for use. The products approved by the company this time are for POC professional use, and can qualitatively detect and distinguish influenza A B or the coronavirus. We are optimistic that the OTC self-test products will follow up or are expected to be approved by the FDA EUA as soon as possible and further expand the product usage scenarios. We maintain our profit forecast and expect EPS of 1.38/1.80/2.29 yuan for 24-26.

The company is a leader in the domestic POCT industry. The product layout and domestic and foreign channel network have been continuously improved. The company was given 22x PE for 24 years (comparable to the company Wind's consistent expected average value of 21x), kept the target price unchanged at 30.32 yuan, and maintained a “buy” rating.

The clinical needs of the product are clear, and it is expected that they will work together through multiple channels

We are optimistic that the three joint testing products approved by the company will achieve good sales performance in the future, based on: 1) The demand for product use is clear and consistent: although the symptoms of influenza A B or COVID-19 infection are similar (they are all fever, cough, etc.), the treatment plans are different, so the differential diagnosis can be completed quickly and accurately through joint testing reagents, which is of great significance in determining the dosage plan. We are optimistic that it will become a routine testing method for respiratory infectious diseases. 2) The first-mover advantage of the product is obvious and the sales network is perfect: This product is the first domestic product of its kind to be approved by the US FDA EUA. We are optimistic that it will achieve rapid release with the company's perfect sales network in the US. 3) Wide range of product application scenarios: Considering that the OTC self-test version of the product may be approved soon, we are optimistic that it will achieve comprehensive coverage of in-hospital and out-of-hospital OTC and possible government procurement scenarios.

The company's endogenous regular revenue has grown rapidly in 23 years, and we are optimistic that the trend will continue to rise in 24 years. We estimate that the company's endogenous regular business revenue will exceed 40% yoy in 23 years, and all regular businesses have achieved good development, including: 1) We estimate that the parent company's domestic regular business revenue will exceed 50% yoy in 23 years.

We are optimistic that the parent company's 24-year revenue from the domestic routine business will continue to increase along with demand such as respiratory testing, etc., and the superimposed luminescence business will achieve a further year-on-year increase of more than 20%; 2) We estimate that the revenue of the international department will exceed 25% yoy in 23 years. Considering the smooth promotion of the company's international department's core fluorescence business, combined with continuous breakthroughs in new products such as chemiluminescence and blood gas for a single portion, we are optimistic that the revenue of the international department will achieve a year-on-year increase of about 30% in 24 years; 3) We estimate that the US subsidiary's revenue for 23 years will be nearly 10% yoy. Considering that new products such as hair toxicology tests and respiratory tests are being released one after another, I am optimistic that the revenue of the US subsidiary will achieve a year-on-year increase of more than 20% in 24 years.

Risk warning: Sales of core products do not meet expectations, and there is a risk of price reduction in tenders for core products.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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