Incident Overview
The company released its annual report for 2023 and quarterly report for 2014:
Year 23: Total operating income of 2.144 billion yuan (YOY +21.44%), net profit attributable to mother of 280 million yuan (YOY +36%), net profit after deduction of 270 million yuan (YOY +32%).
23Q4: Total operating income of 798 million yuan (YOY +42.10%), net profit to mother of 76 million yuan (YOY +8.66%), net profit after deduction of 75 million yuan (YOY -63.14%).
24Q1: Total operating income of 520 million yuan (YOY +49.06%), net profit to mother of 51 million yuan (YOY +45.89%), net profit after deduction of 50 million yuan (YOY +45.35%).
Analytical judgment
Revenue side: 23-year old scooters and balance scooters have grown steadily, and new electric golf carts, electric bicycles, and high-displacement all-terrain vehicles have been released rapidly. By product, electric scooters are 720 million yuan, yoy +5%; electric balance scooters are 296 million yuan, yoy +2%; electric bicycles are 165 million yuan, yoy +111%; electric golf carts are 79 million yuan; all-terrain vehicles are 620 million yuan, yoy +21%; motorcycles are 123 million yuan, yoy +303%. Revenue accelerated in 24Q1. We determined that mainly new golf cars and electric bicycles were released quickly.
Profit side: In '23, the company achieved a gross sales margin of 37.60% (YOY+1.85pct) and a net profit margin of 13.08% (YOY+1.40pct); corresponding Q4 gross sales margin of 31.57% (YOY-7.68pct), and a net profit margin of 9.53% (YOY-2.93pct). We judge that the sharp decline in gross margin in Q4 is mainly due to strong promotions and discounts during the peak season.
The company's sales/management/R&D expenses in '23 were 14.69%/4.36%/4.09%, respectively, +0.30pct/+0.29pct/+0.44pct, respectively; corresponding Q4 was 11.18%/2.95%/4.24%, respectively, and -5.63pct/-
0.68pct/+0.27pct
Investment advice
Based on the annual report information, we adjusted the company's revenue forecast for 24-26 to RMB 28.07/36.41/4467 billion (the previous value was RMB 27.24/35.45 billion for 24-25), +30.90%/+29.73%/+22.67% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of gross margin, it is estimated to be 37.00%/37.00%/37.00% for 24-26, respectively. Corresponding net profit for 24-26 was $3.52/4.50/550 million yuan (previous value was $349/483 million in 24-25), +25.65%/+27.56%/+22.33% year-on-year, respectively. The corresponding EPS was 3.22/4.11/5.03 yuan (previous value was 3.19/4.42 yuan in 24-25). Based on the closing price of 74.90 yuan on April 22, 24, the corresponding PE was 23.24/18.22/14.89 times, respectively.
Risk warning
Post-epidemic consumption recovery falls short of expected risks; raw material price increases risk; new product sales fall short of expectations.