The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in March 2024, the installed capacity of FCVs was 59.54 MW, an increase of 215.7% year on year; the installed capacity of fuel cell systems was 59.54 MW, an increase of 215.7% year on year. Among them, the installed capacity of commercial vehicles was 58.17 MW, and most of the installations in March were heavy trucks and light trucks. From January to March 2024, the cumulative fuel cell system capacity was 101.90 MW, an increase of 122.59% over the previous year. The overall industry is expected to show a high growth trend. Against the backdrop of implementation of policy rules and increased maturity of the industrial chain, the volume is highly certain. In 2024, the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry will enter a period of acceleration in volume. The implementation of fuel cell vehicles and green hydrogen projects will be greatly accelerated. Hydrogen energy and fuel cell manufacturing are currently the two main lines.

Recommended attention: Furui Special Equipment (300228.SZ), Cowell (688551.SH), Yihuatong (688339.SH), Huaguang Huaneng (600475.SH), Shenghui Technology (300423.SZ).

The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:

The number of FCVs insured in March was 413, and the insured volume in 2024Q1 was 824

In March 2024, the number of insured vehicles was 413, an increase of 58% over the previous year. In March 2024, the total number of fuel cell systems installed was 413, of which 389 were commercial vehicles. Due to differences in statistical caliber, FCV production and sales for March announced by the China Automobile Association were 268 and 223 units, respectively, down 33.17% and 53.35% from the same period last year. From January to March 2024, the cumulative amount of insurance was 824, an increase of 52.88% over the previous year.

Cummins has the highest installed capacity in a single month, and Huatong's installed capacity peaked in 2024 with 100 million Huatong's installed capacity

In March, Cummins had the highest installed capacity of 13,860 kW, accounting for 23%; Yuchai Xingshunda ranked second, with 10,500 kW, accounting for 18%; the third was Green Control Drive, with 6000 kW, accounting for 10%. 2024Q1, the top five system companies are Yihuatong, Kunhua New Energy, Cummins, Yuchai Xing Shunda, and Green Control Transmission. Among them, Yihuatong has the highest cumulative installed capacity of 16683.5 kW, accounting for 16%; Kunhua New Energy has the second cumulative installed capacity of 14105 kW, accounting for 14%; Cummins has a cumulative installed capacity of 13,860 kW, accounting for 14%. A number of emerging system companies are active.

Geely had the highest insurance volume in March, and Meijin Auto had the highest insurance volume in 2024Q1

In March, Geely had the highest number of commercial vehicles, 68, accounting for 17%; Jinlong United and Meijin Motors tied for second place, with 63 vehicles, accounting for 16%. With 2024Q1, Meijin Auto has the highest cumulative insurance volume, with 211 vehicles, accounting for 25%; Jinlong Joint has the second highest cumulative insurance volume, with 117 vehicles, accounting for 14%; and the Shaanxi Automobile Group has the third highest cumulative insurance volume, with 110 vehicles, accounting for 13%.

Model urban agglomeration production and marketing: Hebei model urban agglomeration has the highest number of promotions in a single month

According to the statistical caliber of the five major urban agglomerations, in March 2024, the Hebei urban agglomeration had the highest number of vehicles landed, with 176 vehicles, including Zhangjiakou, Shanghai, Handan, and Zhengzhou, which contributed 63 vehicles, 63 vehicles, and 20 vehicles respectively, including the Henan model urban agglomeration, with 146 vehicles, including Zhangjiakou, Shanghai, and Zhengzhou, which contributed 63 vehicles, all from Shanghai. The Beijing urban agglomeration landed 62 vehicles, 60 vehicles from Beijing and 2 from Tianjin, respectively, and 37 vehicles from the Guangdong urban agglomeration. Two from Shenzhen and 10 from Foshan, respectively. From January to March 2024, the total number of vehicles landed in the Hebei urban agglomeration was the highest, with 440 vehicles, followed by the Henan Model City Cluster, with 410 vehicles, the Shanghai Urban Agglomeration with 132 public vehicles, the Beijing Urban Agglomeration with 128 vehicles, and the Guangdong Urban Agglomeration with 86 vehicles.

Global vehicle production and sales

1) Japan: In February 2024, Japan's Toyota FCV sold 184 units globally, down 39.87% year on year; 2) South Korea: In March 2024, the global sales volume of South Korea's Hyundai FCV was 332 units, down 54.08% year on year; 3) US: In March 2024, FCV sales in the US were 88 units, a decrease of 61.57% year on year. In February 2024, Japan's Toyota FCV accounted for 71.25% of sales in the US.

Green hydrogen project electrolyzer tender

From January to April 2024, a total of 4 green hydrogen projects have been publicly tendered for electrolyzers, with a total bid volume of 137 MW of electrolyzers. A total of 19 green hydrogen projects have been publicly tendered for electrolyzers throughout 2023, with a total bid volume of 1,882 MW of electrolyzers. Judging from the commencement of the green hydrogen project and the EPC bidding situation, a total of 180,700 tons of green hydrogen projects have started, and 746,390 nm3/h, 815 electrolyzers will be tendered one after another. Judging from the winning bid share of hydrogen production project electrolyzer companies, Perry Hydrogen Energy/Longji Hydrogen Energy/Sunshine Power ranked in the top three, accounting for 16%/14%/13%; most of the electrolyzers that have already been tendered were alkaline, and the average price average/median of alkaline electrolyzer prices of the selected and first successful candidates was 789.597 million yuan/set and 733.75/6.986 million yuan/set (1000 Nm3/h); the average and median prices of PEM electrolyzers were 726.49/7.1438 million yuan (200Nm3/h), respectively.

Risk warning

The policy fell short of expectations; the construction of hydrogen fueling stations fell short of expectations; the reduction in hydrogen gas costs fell short of expectations; and the implementation of the green hydrogen project fell short of expectations.