新兴品类及渠道增长强劲，门店数量稳健增长。分产品看收入同比增速，2023 年夫妻肺片+0.46%、整禽类-4.06%、香辣休闲类-18.68%、其他鲜货+7.90%、预包装及其他产品-5.72%；2024Q1 夫妻肺片-15.64%、整禽类-18.85%、香辣休闲类-28.43%、其他鲜货+17.57%、预包装及其他产品+6.44%。其他鲜货增速亮眼，夫妻肺片表现好于其他核心产品，整禽类及香辣休闲类承压。分渠道看收入同比增速，2023 年经销模式-2.68%、直销模式+40.90%、其他+0.84%；2024Q1 经销模式-13.52%、直销模式+5.26%、其他+28.36%。截至2023 年底，全国门店总数6205 家，净增510 家，同比增长8.96%。Description of the event
The company's total revenue in 2023 was 3.55 billion yuan (-1.46%, same below), net profit attributable to mother was 333 million yuan (+49.46%), after deducting non-net profit of 278 million yuan (+53.26%). Total operating income of 2023Q4 was 734 million yuan (-14.65%); net profit attributable to mother was 9.917,500 yuan (year-on-year increase in loss), after deducting non-net profit of 15.2356 million yuan (year-on-year loss reduction). Total operating income of 2024Q1 was 695 million yuan (-8.00%); net profit attributable to mother was 53.964 million yuan (+20.87%), after deducting non-net profit of 387.379 million yuan (+13.89%).
Incident comments
Emerging categories and channels are growing strongly, and the number of stores is growing steadily. Looking at the year-on-year revenue growth rate by product, in 2023, husband and wife lung tablets +0.46%, whole poultry -4.06%, spicy leisure products -18.68%, other fresh goods +7.90%, pre-packaged and other products -5.72%; 2024Q1 husband and wife lung tablets -15.64%, whole poultry -18.85%, spicy casual products -28.43%, other fresh goods +17.57%, pre-packaged and other products +6.44%. Other fresh products are growing at an impressive rate. The performance of husband and wife lung tablets is better than other core products. Whole poultry and spicy leisure products are under pressure. Looking at the year-on-year revenue growth rate by channel, 2023 distribution model -2.68%, direct sales model +40.90%, others +0.84%; 2024Q1 distribution model -13.52%, direct sales model +5.26%, others +28.36%. By the end of 2023, the total number of stores nationwide was 6,205, a net increase of 510, an increase of 8.96% over the previous year.
Cost improvement dividends are still there, and investment in sales expenses has increased. The company's net income interest rate in 2023 increased by 3.18 pct to 9.34% year-on-year, gross margin +6.49 pct to 22.46%, and the period expense ratio +2.5 pct to 11.11%. Among them, the sales expense ratio was +2.32 pct, management expense ratio +0.19 pct, R&D expenses rate remained flat, and financial expense ratio -0.01pct. 2024Q1 net income margin increased 1.86pct to 7.77% year-on-year, gross margin +2.2pct to 20.89%, and period expense ratio +0.89pct to 12.13%, including sales expense ratio +0.68pct, management expense ratio -0.09pct, R&D expense ratio +0.20pct, and financial expense ratio +0.10pct. Cost pressure is in the improvement range. The increase in sales expenses is mainly due to developing new brands, expanding new regions, increasing investment in advertising expenses, and increasing sales staff.
Increase the dividend ratio to give back to shareholders, and the dividend ratio is expected to remain high. As of December 31, 2023, the cumulative distributable profit of the parent company was 587 million yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, for a total cash dividend of RMB 330 million. The cash dividend to be distributed this time accounts for 56.10% of the company's distributable profit, accounting for 99.41% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies. The company has formulated an investor return plan for two consecutive years and has steadily increased the cash dividend ratio. The amount of cash dividends for the year 2022 to 2023 has exceeded the total amount of capital raised during the listing.
Diversified cooperation and brand expansion to achieve industrial layout. (1) Online To C, flagship stores and specialty stores on e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD, Douyin, and Pinduoduo continue to develop, and cooperate deeply with Hema Xiansheng, Pupu Supermarket, Family Mart, 711, Meituan Grocery, and Dingdong Grocery. (2) Offline To B, develop customers such as Grandma, Chen Xianggui, Guoquan Food Exchange, Hefu Noodle, Wang Xiaoxia, and Three Squirrels. (3) Cross-border cooperation, Feng Siyu Steak Beef, which was acquired in 2022, has successfully crossed the threshold of 100 stores and doubled its revenue and profits; in 2023, it continued to invest in brands such as Laohan Fried Chicken and Beijing Crispy. (4) Overseas business. The company established an overseas division in May 2023 and has initially entered the Australian and North American markets.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated to be $383, 4.21, and 481 million yuan, respectively; EPS is $0.93, 1.02, and 1.17, respectively. The current stock price PE is 21, 19, and 16X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices;
2. The risk of market development;
3. Risks of increased market competition, etc.
