Grasp the long-term upward direction of medicine and aesthetics, and be optimistic about leading domestic manufacturers leading market segment growth dividends
There is a certain correlation between medical and aesthetic spending and residents' income expectations, but the pace of growth of upstream medical and aesthetic manufacturers at home and abroad is not frequent. Pursuing health and beauty is an eternal topic for humans. We place more importance on improving the strength and technological progress of domestic manufacturers, positively leading the release of market segment demand with high-quality supply, and continuing to interpret import substitution. Adhering to the purpose of “the beauty of adulthood with technology”, Aimeike continues to anticipate demand and provide a traffic+mental+high add-on product matrix, product power and channel power, and is expected to continue to seize the dividends of market segment growth. We judge that the Hi Sports series is expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate, and the Twin Series will follow a new growth curve. The potential release of new Bonida/botulin/weight loss/collagen/photoelectric/skincare pipelines can also be expected.
EPS11.88/15.56/19.42 yuan is expected in 24-26 years, which is 34 times PE compared to the company's 24-year Wind's consistent profit forecast. Considering the company's complete pipeline of medical and aesthetic products and strong channel capacity, the target price is 415.80 yuan for 24 years, and the target price is 415.80 yuan, which gives a “buy” rating for the first time.
Grasp the long-term direction of the medical and aesthetic industry: Resonance between rising demand and supply expansion The penetration rate of the Chinese medical and aesthetic market is still improving, and the orderly expansion of compliant supply is expected to continue to open up incremental markets: 1) diversification of materials, from hyaluronic acid to regenerating injections and recombinant collagen; 2) Site refinement: new products/new indications are exploiting consumer segmentation needs; 3) Comprehensive diagnosis and treatment: Joint manufacturers provide comprehensive solutions linked to multiple products for beauty seekers. Divided according to the growth potential of different consumer groups, we expect the total consumption amount of China's medical and aesthetic terminal market to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2030 (corresponding to the upstream factory scale exceeding 160 billion yuan). Divided according to the upper contour/middle face/lower contour/neck/eye circumference/circumference/circumference/circumference/skin care mainstream areas, we expect the total size of the above market to be about 120 billion by 2030, and the potential for use in refined/innovative products such as the top of the crania/aurical/hands/body may be underestimated.
Aimeike: Forward-looking insight into market demand, continuous incubation of large single products
The company took the lead in entering a differentiated market segment with Hi-Body Neck Needle. Hi-Tee Panda Acupuncture and Bubble Acupuncture focused on the eye area and water light markets respectively, and the product matrix continued to be rich. The value of the Hi-Tec brand is increasing, and we expect the Hi-Tec series to be still growing. The regenerative injection, Wet White Angel, has grown rapidly and has become a strong support point for the company to build a phenomenal product matrix; the Wet White Plus Twin Series product portfolio creates a comprehensive anti-aging solution for the entire face with deep skeletal support+shallow tiling, which is expected to relay a new round of growth curve. New Bonida/botulin/weight loss/collagen/photoelectric/skincare pipelines are well-stocked, and their potential is yet to be unleashed.
Sales channels lay the foundation, and R&D strength provides the source of momentum
Direct sales helped incubate new products, and distribution helped sales volume. At the end of '23, the company's direct sales+distribution covered about 7,000 institutions, which had a lot of room for improvement compared to the 18,000 medical and aesthetic institutions announced by the Health and Health Commission in January '24.
Regionally, the East China and North China market accounts for more than half of the revenue, and other regions have yet to be further cultivated. The company strengthens the domestic marketing system, and relies on Quanxuan Academy to empower doctors and provide comprehensive and full-cycle support services.
The company focuses on R&D and innovation, and the high-quality R&D team and industry-leading technology provide innovation impetus.
Risk warning: New products are slow to be approved, market competition is intensifying, and spending power is weak.