occurrences
The company's revenue for 2023 was 3.58 billion yuan (+42.9% YoY), net profit to mother of 280 million yuan (YoY +32.4%); 2023Q4 revenue 1.08 billion yuan (YoY +50.1%), net profit to mother 95.89 million yuan (YoY +165.5%); 2024Q1 revenue of 950 million yuan (+35.5% YoY), net profit to mother of 63.03 million yuan (YoY +114.4%);
Key points of investment
23 Annual revenue of $3.58 billion, of which BF revenue was $680 million, endogenous income of 2.9 billion (YoY +16%) 23 Subregional split of endogenous income: 1.85 billion (YoY +24%), Europe (+34% YoY), and Endogenous US $360 million (YoY -33%), which declined significantly due to channel inventory removal and last year's high base, and the new domain had a significant decline of 160 million (year-on-year doubling).
With 24Q1 revenue of $450 million (+35.5% year over year), we expect endogenous revenue to increase by 30+%, and BF's revenue will grow faster.
The efficiency of the use of 23&24Q1 management expenses has improved, and the endogenous net margin remained high at 24Q1 gross margin of 30.6% (+3pct year over year), and the net profit margin was 5.7% (+3.0 pct year over year). 24Q1 Sales/Management/R&D/Finance Expense Ratio 7.7% (YoY +0.2pct)/9.7% (YoY -2.2pct)/3.2% (YoY -0.04pct)/1.7% (YoY -0.05pct).
The gross profit margin for 23 years was 30.3% (-0.9 pct year over year), and the net profit margin was 6.7% (-1.8 pct year over year). The 23-year sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was 7.8% (YoY +2.6pct)/9.8% (YoY -2.3pct)/3.1% (YoY -0.1pct)/1.5% (YoY +1.2pct).
Profit forecasting and valuation
We believe that long-term and short-term logic resonates, and valuations are expected to improve: (1) the company manager's logic: in the first year of globalization, it is expected that the company will take the lead in increasing the concentration of the B-side of the global nutritional and health food industry chain; (2) the current inflection point of fundamentals: the US channel ends inventory removal and performance flexibility will be released as scheduled; (3) the draft restricted stock incentive plan and the medium- to long-term employee stock ownership plan (400 million performance target for 24 years, without excluding incentives and employee shareholding expenses) have firm goals and a high degree of implementation.
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated at RMB 43.4, 50.6, and RMB 5.89 billion, respectively, and net profit to mother of RMB 4.0, 5.0, and 590 million yuan respectively; maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning
Increased industry competition risk; risk of policy changes; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; measurement risk bias, etc.