负极盈利能力承压，涂覆隔膜业务持续增长。1）23 年公司负极材料及石墨化业务实现营收66.11 亿元，同比下降16.01%，负极产品毛利率收窄，主要受行业产能供过于求及下游电池客户去库存的双重影响。2）涂覆加工业务延续良好态势，膜产品及涂覆加工业务实现营收48.16 亿元，同比增长23.63%，新建PVDF 产能陆续投产，销量逐季提升。Incident: In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 15.340 billion yuan, -0.80%; net profit to mother of 1.912 billion yuan, or -38.42% year-on-year; realized net profit without deduction to mother of 1,781 billion yuan, or -39.82% year-on-year.
2024Q1 achieved operating income of 3,034 billion yuan, -17.97% YoY; net profit to mother was 445 million yuan, or -36.64% YoY.
Comment:
Negative electrode profitability is under pressure, and the coated diaphragm business continues to grow. 1) In '23, the company's anode materials and graphitization business achieved revenue of 6.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.01%. The gross margin of anode products narrowed, mainly due to oversupply of production capacity in the industry and inventory removal by downstream battery customers. 2) The coating processing business continued its good trend. The membrane products and coating processing business achieved revenue of 4.816 billion yuan, an increase of 23.63% over the previous year. New PVDF production capacity was put into operation one after another, and sales increased quarterly.
The development of new products continues to advance. 1) The company's next-generation nanosilicon carbon products have been finalized. CVD deposition technology and silicon-carbon composite technology can effectively meet the performance requirements of future anode materials for long cycle and low expansion, leading the dynamic performance industry. 2) On the basis of meeting 6C performance, the new fast charging anode product launched by the company achieved 8C/10C fast charging performance through its own binder combination and raw material innovation. 3) A breakthrough has been made in the development of composite aluminum foil and compatible copper foil fluid collectors. Currently, the company's composite aluminum foil products have been shipped in small quantities in the consumer sector.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's net profit to be $25/33/40 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, up 32%, 31%, and 21% year-on-year. As of April 22, the market value corresponding to the PE valuation for 24 and 25 was 15/12 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: risk of industry demand falling short of expectations; risk of iterative changes in technology; risk of raw material price fluctuations exceeding expectations; environmental protection and production safety risks, etc.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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