The main consideration for the replacement and renewal of string welding equipment falls on the product side differentiation, and in the downward cycle of the industry, grid process changes that reduce costs and increase efficiency have received more attention, and the demand for a cost-reducing and efficient process such as 0BB is also more urgent.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that according to estimates, after TopCon introduced 0BB, the total manufacturing cost decreased by about 0.012-0.019 yuan/W; after HJT introduced 0BB, the total manufacturing cost decreased by about 0.042-0.050 yuan/W. Assuming that the unit value of the new 0BB string welding machine is 21 million yuan/GW, and the unit value of the remodeled 0BB string welder is 15 million yuan/GW, then in 2024-2026, the corresponding market space for 0BB string welders is 33/77/8.4 billion yuan respectively. The market space is expected to reach 19.4 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and head string welding equipment manufacturers are expected to directly benefit.
In response to the investment opportunities brought by the accelerated industrialization of the 0BB process, there are currently three main directions: direction 1 is leading equipment manufacturers that can provide 0BB string welding equipment, focusing on recommending Autoway (688516.SH) and Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ); direction 2 is leading component manufacturers that are expected to lead the industry in R&D and mass production in the 0BB process, focusing on recommending Jingke Energy (688223.SH) and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH): Direction 3 is leading auxiliary materials with leading R&D strength and comprehensive product layout.
The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:
Major technological changes are gradually slowing down in most areas, and there is still room for iteration in the component sector in the short term
The photovoltaic industry has basically completed a technological leap forward in silicon, silicon wafers, and batteries at this stage. Based on judging the cyclical position and current state of technology in the photovoltaic industry, Guojin Securities believes that it is difficult for the main chain link to undergo disruptive technological changes and iterations in a short period of time. The focus on new technology in the photovoltaic industry should also be placed on the cost reduction and efficiency of “seam repair”. The evolution of the grid process is the main focus. Reducing the amount of silver paste used in the photovoltaic industry is the main focus. In order to further reduce the cost of silver, market research and development is advancing towards 0BB (no main grid) technology, that is, copper wire welding tape is used to replace the original silver main grid to directly collect fine grid current and achieve interconnection between cells. String welding equipment is the core part of implementing the 0BB process.
Domestic 0BB technology research is booming, and the specific paths of process practice are diversified
According to the interconnection method between the welding belt and the battery, the string welding scheme without main gate components can be divided into four categories: “SmartWire,” “Laminating,” “Welding+Dispensing,” and “Dispensing.” SmartWire technology covers a polymer film (copper wire composite film) with a copper mesh on a cell with only a thin grid; coating technology forms components through one-time fixing, laminating, or multiple combinations of components; welding+dispensing technology uses two methods of welding and bonding to jointly guarantee the tensile strength and reliability of the welding tape to the cell and its fine grid; the dispensing technology uses only an adhesive method to connect the welding belt to the battery, which is expected to further reduce the process and cost.
The above four types of processes can achieve series connection of 0BB components, and each has advantages in terms of electrical performance, optoelectronic performance, and mechanical properties. At present, major domestic manufacturers of photovoltaic equipment and modules have carried out a comprehensive process layout in terms of fence-free technology.
From “optional” to “required”, the market space of 0BB string welding equipment is expected to reach 19.4 billion yuan in 2024-2026
In an age where the industry, especially component companies, are profitable, the evolution of the grid process is not urgent. The main consideration for replacing and upgrading string welding equipment falls on the product side differentiation. In the downward cycle of the industry, changes in the grid process that reduce costs and increase efficiency have received more attention, and the demand for a process that reduces costs and increases efficiency such as 0BB is also even more urgent. According to Guojin Securities estimates, after TopCon introduced 0BB, the total manufacturing cost decreased by about 0.012-0.019 yuan/W; after HJT introduced 0BB, the total manufacturing cost decreased by about 0.042-0.050 yuan/W. Assuming that the unit value of the new 0BB string welding machine is 21 million yuan/GW, and the unit value of the remodeled 0BB string welder is 15 million yuan/GW, then in 2024-2026, the corresponding market space for 0BB string welders is 33/77/8.4 billion yuan respectively. The market space is expected to reach 19.4 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and head string welding equipment manufacturers are expected to directly benefit.
Risk warning
0BB process development progress falls short of expectations; terminal acceptance falls short of expectations; there is a risk that industry profits will be under pressure for a long time.