订单及生产任务饱满，24Q1 业绩同比改善显著公司发布2024 年一季报：2024Q1 实现营收7.99 亿元，同比+28.61%，实现归母净利润0.95 亿元，同比+57.74%。公司24Q1 整体毛利率为33.16%，同比+4.61pcts，整体净利率为16.13%，同比+4.30pcts。公司24Q1 盈利能力同比改善，或由于高附加值军品营收占比提升所致。24Q1 期末公司存货17.94 亿元，较年初增长9.75%，合同负债3.35 亿元，较年初增长12.25%，或说明公司订单及生产任务饱满，业绩表现有望逐季向好。Lower profit forecasts and maintain “buy” ratings
Steel Research Gaona released its annual report, achieving revenue of 3.408 billion yuan (yoy +18.37%) and net profit of 319 million yuan (yoy -5.17%) in 2023. The company's revenue growth rate of deformed alloy products slowed marginally in 23 years, and revenue for new alloy products declined year-on-year, or due to fluctuations in downstream military demand, so we lowered the company's revenue forecast values for deformed alloy products and new alloy products. Considering the impact of the military price ladder price reduction, we lowered the gross margin forecast value of the new alloy products. The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.56, 0.74, and 0.98 yuan, respectively (the values before 2024-2025 were 0.73 and 0.96 yuan). Comparatively, the company's 24-year Wind unanimously expected the average PE value to be 24 times. The company's new powder superalloy technology advantages were highlighted, giving the company 36 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 20.16 yuan (previous value 26.28 yuan) to “buy”.
The subsidiary Xinlitong's performance has increased dramatically. Demand for deformed alloys and new alloy products has stabilized by product. In terms of products, the company's revenue for cast alloy products was 2,297 billion yuan (+32.58% year over year), with a gross profit margin of 31.72% (+5.44pcts year over year). Among them, the subsidiary Steel Research Dekai earned 1,054 million yuan (YoY +10.12%), net profit margin 13.92% (YoY -3.01pcts), subsidiary Xinlitong earned 1,2001 billion yuan (+39.37%), net profit margin 15.04% (+9.06pcts); 2) deformed alloy products revenue of 717 million yuan (+3.30% YoY), gross profit margin 15.67% (-3.84pcts); 3) Revenue of new alloy products was 351 million yuan (-12.10% YoY), gross profit margin of 38.51% (-38.51%) 7.53pcts). Revenue from cast alloy products is high, mainly due to strong demand in the downstream petrochemical and metallurgical industries of the subsidiary Xinlitong, a marginal slowdown in revenue growth for deformed alloy products, a decline in revenue for new alloy products, or fluctuations in demand for downstream military products.
Orders and production tasks were plentiful, and 24Q1 performance improved significantly year-on-year. The company released its 2024 quarterly report: 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 799 million yuan, +28.61% year-on-year, and achieved net profit of 95 million yuan, or +57.74% over the same period last year. The company's overall gross margin for 24Q1 was 33.16%, +4.61 pcts year on year, and the overall net margin was 16.13%, +4.30 pcts year on year. The company's 24Q1 profitability improved year-on-year, or due to an increase in the share of high-value-added military revenue. At the end of the 24Q1 period, the company's inventory was 1.794 billion yuan, up 9.75% from the beginning of the year, and contract liabilities were 335 million yuan, up 12.25% from the beginning of the year, which may indicate that the company is full of orders and production tasks. Performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
The civilian sector has opened up a new growth pole, and there is still plenty of room for long-term growth in the field of deformed superalloys. In the past, the company focused more on R&D and technological innovation, and adopted a social collaboration model in production. In order to better meet future development needs, a wholly-owned subsidiary, Sichuan Gaona, was set up in 2022 to lay out the deformed superalloy production demonstration base in Deyang, Sichuan. According to the company's 23 annual report, the product conversion at the Deyang base is gradually being implemented. By the end of 2023, the first phase of the Deyang Forging Project had progressed 90 %. At the same time, the company opened up a new growth pole in the civilian sector. Its subsidiary, Qingdao Xinlitong, mainly produces cracking furnace tubes and conversion furnace tubes used in the petrochemical, metallurgical and other industries. The 23-year performance has improved dramatically over the same period last year, and we are optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent releases of civilian products.
Risk warning: Aerospace demand falls short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.
