JD Group-SW (09618.HK): Revenue and profit performance is expected to be steady

事项：

京东集团即将发布2024 年一季度财报。

国信互联网观点：1）一季度收入利润表现稳健，料收入同比+4%，Non-GAAP 净利率同比-0.1pct：收入端，我们预计Q1 京东集团实现营收2516 亿元，同比+4%。京东零售组织调整完毕，叠加去年低基数，预计京东零售收入增速+5%，两年CAGR 为1%，预计本季度GMV 保持高个位数增长，其中带电类目表现稳定，商超类目增速逐步恢复，预计京东零售/京东物流/新业务Q1 收入增速分别为+5%/10%/42%。利润端，料公司2024Q1 Non-GAAP 净利率3.0%，同比下降0.1pct。净利率同比下降的主要原因是京东零售恢复正常投放后营销费用提升。2）维持买入评级：公司内部组织调整基本完成，预计本季度表现稳健，我们维持公司收入与利润预测，目前公司隐含2024 年经调整净利7.9xPE，剔除现金估值为5.8xPE，2023 年公司分红和回购合计股东回报率约4%，维持目标价127-137 港币，距当前上涨幅度30%-40%，继续维持“买入”评级。

评论：

整体：一季度收入利润表现稳健，料收入同比+4%，Non-GAAP 净利率同比-0.1pct我们预计Q1 京东集团实现营收2516 亿元，同比+4%。京东零售组织调整完毕，叠加去年低基数，预计京东零售收入增速+5%，两年CAGR 为1%，GMV 保持高个位数增长，其中带电类目表现稳定，商超类目增速逐步恢复，预计京东零售/京东物流/新业务Q1 收入增速分别为+5%/10%/42%。

料公司2024Q1 Non-GAAP 净利率3.0%，同比下降0.1pct。净利率同比下降的主要原因是京东零售恢复正常投放后营销费用提升。

投资建议：维持“买入”评级

公司内部组织调整基本完成，预计本季度表现稳健，我们维持公司收入预测与利润预测，目前公司隐含2024 年经调整净利7.9xPE，剔除现金估值为5.8xPE，2023 年公司分红和回购合计股东回报率约4%，维持目标价127-137 港币，距当前上涨幅度30%-40%，继续维持“买入”评级。

风险提示

政策风险，新进入者竞争加剧等市场风险，宏观经济系统性风险等。

Matters:

JD Group is about to release financial results for the first quarter of 2024.

Guoxin Internet's opinion: 1) Revenue and profit performance in the first quarter was steady, with revenue expected to be +4% year over year, and non-GAAP net margin -0.1 pct year over year: On the revenue side, we expect JD Group to achieve revenue of 251.6 billion yuan in Q1, +4% year over year. The adjustment of the JD retail organization has been completed. Combined with last year's low base, the JD retail revenue growth rate is expected to be +5%, and the two-year CAGR is expected to maintain high single-digit growth. Among them, the performance of the charged category is stable, and the growth rate of the supermarket category is gradually recovering. The Q1 revenue growth rate of JD Retail/JD Logistics/New Business is expected to be +5%/10%/42%, respectively. On the profit side, the company's 2024Q1 non-GAAP net profit margin was 3.0%, down 0.1 pct year over year. The main reason for the year-on-year decline in net interest rates was the increase in marketing expenses after JD retail resumed normal sales. 2) Maintaining the purchase rating: The company's internal organizational adjustments have basically been completed. We are maintaining the company's revenue and profit forecast. Currently, the company implied an adjusted net profit of 7.9xPE in 2024, excluding cash, and the total shareholder return of the company's dividends and repurchases in 2023 was about 4%, maintaining a target price of HK$127-137, maintaining a target price of HK$127-137, and continuing to maintain the “buy” rating.

Commentary:

Overall: Revenue and profit performance in the first quarter was steady. Revenue is expected to be +4% year over year, and non-GAAP net margin is -0.1 pct year over year. We expect Q1 JD Group to achieve revenue of 251.6 billion yuan, +4% year over year. The adjustment of the JD retail organization has been completed. Combined with last year's low base, the JD retail revenue growth rate is expected to be +5%. The CAGR for two years is 1%. GMV maintains high single-digit growth. Among them, the performance of the charged category is stable, and the growth rate of the supermarket category is gradually recovering. The Q1 revenue growth rate of JD Retail/JD Logistics/New Business is expected to be +5%/10%/42%, respectively.

The company's 2024Q1 non-GAAP net profit margin was 3.0%, down 0.1 pct year over year. The main reason for the year-on-year decline in net interest rates was the increase in marketing expenses after JD retail resumed normal sales.

Investment advice: Maintaining a “buy” rating

The company's internal organizational adjustments have basically been completed, and we expect steady performance for this quarter. Currently, the company implied an adjusted net profit of 7.9xPE in 2024, with a valuation of 5.8xPE excluding cash. The total shareholder return for the company's dividends and repurchases in 2023 was about 4%, maintaining a target price of HK$127-137, which is 30%-40% from the current increase, and continues to maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Policy risks, market risks such as increased competition for new entrants, macroeconomic systemic risks, etc.

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京东集团-SW(09618.HK)：料收入利润表现稳健

JD Group-SW (09618.HK): Revenue and profit performance is expected to be steady

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