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大行评级|瑞银:香港撤辣后物业交投逐渐放缓 估计今年住宅楼价下跌约5%

Major Bank Ratings | UBS: Property trading gradually slowed down after Hong Kong withdrew, and it is estimated that residential property prices will drop by about 5% this year

Gelonghui Finance ·  Apr 23 10:20
Glonghui, April 23 | UBS released a report saying that since the Hong Kong property market was lifted on February 28, 4,100 new residential units were sold in March, which is equivalent to about 40% of sales for the whole of last year, but sales have slowed to 1,015 units from the beginning of April to 15. In terms of the average daily trading volume, it decreased from 133 units in March to 68 units in April, but it is still higher than the 8 to 13 units in January to February. Weekly second-hand sales also slowed. The bank maintained its previous forecast and estimated that residential property prices would drop by about 5% this year, mainly due to high inventories, high interest rates or prolonged periods of time, and weak macroeconomics. Based on current sales progress, UBS estimates that new residential properties will be sold around 17,000 to 18,000 units throughout the year, which means it will take 34 to 36 months to consume all inventory, which is still 30 months higher than the bank's estimated inventory level where property prices have stabilized for a long time. Since the market estimates that the high interest rate environment has been maintained for a long time, it is believed that developers will continue to prioritize sales over sales prices to speed up cash return. Among the relevant shares covered by the bank, Changshi contracted sales of HK$10.7 billion in Hong Kong from the beginning of the year to mid-April, which is the highest level, followed by Henderson Land and Kerry Construction. In terms of shares, I prefer Credit Trust's net cash level, and I also prefer Hengdi because the conversion of farmland in the northern metropolitan area is speeding up.

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