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安利股份(300218):24Q1业绩同比高增 汽车内饰品类+TPU将迎来快速放量

Amway Co., Ltd. (300218): 24Q1 performance increased year-on-year, and automotive interior category+TPU will usher in rapid volume

招商證券 ·  Apr 22

Incident: The company released the 2024 quarterly performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 3800 to 45 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 370.79%-420.68%, after deducting non-return net profit of 3500-42 million yuan, an increase of 298.73%-338.47% over the previous year, and a significant year-on-year increase in performance.

Product volume and price increased sharply, and 24Q1 performance increased year over year. The 24Q1 company continued the good trend since Q3-4 in '23, with sufficient orders, strong production and sales, and a significant year-on-year increase in performance. The volume and price of the main products in 24Q1 rose sharply, sales increased 16.73% year on year, revenue increased 25.16% year on year, unit price increased 7.26% year on year, gross profit margin increased by 28.06%, up 10.46 pct year on year. Major customer strategy results are beginning to show, product and customer structure has been optimized, and the proportion of high value-added products has increased. Furthermore, on April 16, 2024, the company announced that Amway Vietnam has officially become an American supplier of Lok Chi Bao, which will help Amway Co., Ltd. and Amway Vietnam obtain more orders and increase profit levels.

Stricter environmental protection has driven the concentration of the PU synthetic leather industry, and emerging fields have brought new increases in demand. China is a major producer and consumer of artificial leather. According to statistics, the artificial leather synthetic leather market size is about 80 to 100 billion yuan, and PU synthetic leather accounts for about 40%. Currently, there are more than 500 PU synthetic leather regulated enterprises in China. The industry concentration is low and competition is fierce. As environmental protection requirements become stricter and customer requirements for products increase, it will promote the elimination of backward production capacity and bring development opportunities to leading enterprises. PU synthetic leather is mainly used in footwear, clothing, sofas and home furnishings. Currently, downstream sports shoe customers have basically finished warehousing, and it is expected to usher in marginal improvement in 2024. Furthermore, with the application and promotion of PU synthetic leather in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, electronics, sports equipment, and engineering decoration, it is expected to bring a new increase in demand for PU synthetic leather.

The proportion of high-value-added products such as water-based, solventless, and TPU has increased, and the rapid expansion of automotive interior categories is expected to usher in a high rate of growth in the future. Currently, the company's production of water-based and solventless products is gradually increasing, accounting for about 20-25% of revenue. At the same time, the company is actively deploying TPU products to promote their application in the fields of functional footwear, consumer electronics and sports equipment, and is expected to usher in rapid volume in the future. In addition, the company's products have been used in some models of famous brands such as Toyota, BYD, Xiaopeng, Great Wall, Extreme, and Cyrus. It is expected that in the future, as the number of car brands served by the company increases and the product supply ratio increases, the automotive interior category will grow at a high rate.

First coverage, giving a “Highly Recommended” investment rating. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 25.0, 29.6, and 3.33 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother is 1.97, 2.56, and 319 million yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15.4, 11.9, and 9.5 times, respectively, covered for the first time, and given a “highly recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Fluctuations in raw material prices and natural gas prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and payment risks of trust products.

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