Baike Biotech Co., Ltd. announced that 2024Q1 achieved total operating revenue of 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.64%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 61 million yuan, an increase of 229.50% year on year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 60 million yuan, an increase of 228.87% year on year.
Key points of investment
Further improve POV coverage and drive the penetration rate of the shingles vaccine
The company achieved total revenue of 270 million yuan in 2024 Q1, an increase of 50.64% over the previous year. The main live attenuated vaccine for herpes zoster contributed a high level of revenue after its launch. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,825 billion yuan, of which the shingles vaccine reached 883 million yuan, accounting for 48.36% of the annual revenue. At the same time, the company will combine the sales situation of the shingles vaccine in 2023 to increase POV coverage, give full play to the advantages of online reservation+offline vaccination, and further increase the market penetration rate of the shingles vaccine.
The dosage upgrade of the nasal spray influenza vaccine is imminent, which is expected to inject new momentum into the influenza vaccine
The liquid nasal spray influenza vaccine is about to be applied for marketing approval. The influenza vaccination period is heavy. The company's influenza vaccine requires a redissolution process for freeze-dried dosage forms, increasing work investment costs. Waiting for the live attenuated nasal influenza vaccine (liquid dosage form) to be marketed will greatly improve the convenience of vaccination. At that time, the penetration rate of the company's influenza vaccine is expected to increase dramatically. At the same time, the company plans to declare clinical research on the adjuvant influenza vaccine in 2024. The vaccine is suitable for people aged 6 months and above, focusing on people aged 60 and over and under 3, and is compatible with nasal spray forms to achieve an influenza vaccine product portfolio covering the entire population.
Profit forecasting
The launch of the company's shingles vaccine broke the situation where domestic shingles prevention products are monopolized by imported vaccines, and made up for the shortcomings in the domestic shingles vaccine market. As a result, net profit of 2024-2025 was raised to 7.40 billion yuan or 1,069 million yuan. It is predicted that the company's revenue for 2024-2026 will be 23.06, 31.85 billion yuan, and 3.75 billion yuan, respectively, net profit due to mother will be 7.40, 10.69 billion yuan, and 1,234 yuan, EPS will be 1.79, 2.59, and 2.99 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 22.2, 15.4, and 13.3 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Sales fell short of expectations, influenza vaccine marketing fell short of expectations, sales promotion fell short of expectations, and competition increased risk.