The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to CCTV financial news, the shipping market has obvious off-peak season characteristics, and the increase in freight rates generally accompanies the peak shipping season. Recently, the industry has set off a “wave of price increases” during the off-season. Leading shipping companies such as Maersk, Dafei, and Hapag-Lloyd have issued price increase letters one after another. For some routes, the increase was close to 70%. For a 40-foot container, the maximum increase in freight rates reached 2,000 US dollars.

According to the director of an international freight forwarding company in Shanghai, the company recently received notices of price increases from several shipping companies. However, this round of price adjustments is not an all-line price adjustment; the scope of price adjustment routes is mainly concentrated in the US, South America, Red Sea, etc.

The director showed the trend of the container freight index for the past 4 years. The chart shows that the container freight index rose in March and April for several years. This is because March and April are the long “American Line” negotiation season every year. In addition to regular quarterly price adjustments, part of the reason for the current increase is to increase bargaining chips when signing future contracts.

However, in this round of freight rate increases, spot contracts are more affected than long-term contracts.

A relevant person in charge of a shipping company in Shanghai said that one is to do an immediate market, that is, to go on the market. When the market rises, we will raise the rent level appropriately for this part of the ship. Take the BDI (Baltic Dry Bulk) Index, which has risen by nearly 80% compared to the same period in 2023. We have long-term leases for one to two years for some ships. Despite the rise or fall in the market, there is no impact on that number of ships.

In the face of this wave of price adjustments, downstream shippers are also more careful in choosing shipping companies and routes, and will inquire more often.

As for the market price, the shipper knows that there are many changes, so there will be more inquiries. For example, they usually let us update prices a month or a quarter, but now they even launch online bidding, with dozens of offers every day to get the best solution.

Industry insiders believe that this round of price increases was greatly affected by the Red Sea crisis. Many container ships chose to abandon the Red Sea route and bypass the Cape of Good Hope. According to estimates, taking the route from the Far East to Europe as an example, the one-way shipping time for ships was extended by 8 days due to detours, and fuel costs increased by 650,000 US dollars. Therefore, many urgent shippers will choose rail freight as an alternative.

Hehe Futures pointed out that the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, geographical conflicts are disturbing market sentiment, and risks in the shipping market have increased, prompting many airlines to announce increases in May freight rates one after another, and tight capacity due to high flight suspensions during the May 1st holiday has also caused recent increases in cargo volume. Supported by multiple advantages, the shipping market is running strongly.

However, in terms of capacity, long-term supply pressure still exists. According to Alphaliner's latest shipping market process growth forecast, capacity supply will increase by 9.8% and demand will increase by 3% this year, and oversupply will reach 6.8%. It is estimated that in 2023, global container ship deliveries will exceed 2.3 million TEU, up 8.2% year on year; delivery volume is expected to reach 2.93 million TEU in 2024, up 9.1% year on year; delivery volume dropped to 1.94 million TEU in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 4.9%. There are 148 ships of 15,000 TEU or more, with a capacity of 2.67 million TEU, that is, half of the capacity added in 2023-2024 will be invested in European routes. If all of this capacity is released, the problem of excess capacity on European routes will worsen.

On the demand side, Heho Futures believes that, focusing on the European economic situation, the economic data performance of Europe, Britain, Germany and other countries is weak. Under inflationary pressure, demand for goods is growing slowly, and demand recovery falls short of expectations. However, the economic performance of the US market is still resilient, so the performance of the US-West route is due to the Asian-European route.

Related concept stocks:

Sinotrans (00598): The Group is a leading integrated logistics service provider in China. The company operates through four major divisions. The Freight Forwarder Division delivers goods to designated consignees within a specified time frame and provides shipping agency services related to freight forwarding. The logistics division provides full logistics services. The Warehousing and Terminal Services segment provides warehousing, depot, container handling and terminal services. The Other Services segment provides motor transport services, ship transportation services and express delivery services.

Pacific Shipping (02343): Mainly engaged in owning and leasing and operating dry bulk carriers such as portable and ultra-portable dry bulk carriers, focusing on the global small commodity dry bulk shipping business. The company currently has its own fleet of 115 small portable dry bulk carriers and super handy dry bulk carriers, and operates a total of about 243 owned and leased cargo ships.

Oriental Overseas International (00316): The company is an investment holding company mainly engaged in container transportation and logistics business. The Company and its subsidiaries operate through two major divisions: Container Transportation and Logistics Division, and Other Divisions. The Container Transportation and Logistics Division is engaged in global container transportation business on major routes in the Pacific, Atlantic, Eurasian, Australian and Asian regions, and within Asia. In addition, it also provides comprehensive services for the management and retention control of the effective storage and movement of goods.