The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the high increase in gas heavy truck+ exports is both improving, and the trade-in policy is further stimulating, and the heavy truck sector is expected to continue to improve in the 24-25 years. 1) The combination of factors such as continued widening oil and gas price differential+falling freight rates+gradual diversification of gas vehicle product types has driven the rapid increase in gas vehicle cost performance and customer acceptance; at the same time, domestic gas supply is abundant, local gas station construction is accelerated, supply/demand/policy multi-dimensional catalysis, and the penetration rate of heavy gas trucks is expected to increase rapidly from 2024 to 2025; 2) Heavy truck exports have shown strong resilience, and breakthroughs in steady sales growth. Overseas markets are prominent. The rate continues to rise; 3) The trade-in policy is worth looking forward to, currently The number of domestic heavy-duty trucks ranked 4 and below is still high. Policy strength is expected to stimulate incremental demand and is optimistic about the upward trend.

Dongwu Securities expects the domestic heavy truck industry's wholesale sales volume from 2024 to 2025 to be 107/1.25 million vehicles, respectively, +17.3%/+17.1% year-on-year. Investments in the heavy truck sector focus on strong α (natural gas heavy trucks benefit) + performance to implement high-certainty products [Weichai Power (000338.SZ) +Sinotruk (000951.SZ) +FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ) /Foton Motor (600166.SH)].

The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:

Total industry volume:

Production batches rose significantly during the peak season of heavy truck sales in March, with a slight increase in sales channels: 1) Production volume: The overall monthly output of the heavy truck industry in March was 116,500 vehicles, -1.7%/+96.4% year-on-month; 2) Wholesale: Domestic heavy truck wholesale volume in March was 115,800 units, +0.3%/+93.6% year-on-month; 3) Shanghai Insurance: Heavy truck terminal sales volume in March was 751,000 units, -1.7%/+183.7% compared with the same period. The traditional peak sales season for cards led to a significant month-on-month increase in production batches. 4) Exports: The heavy truck industry exported 24,600 vehicles in March, +4.1%/+4.2% year-on-month. 5) Inventory: Heavy truck industry enterprise inventory +0.08,000 vehicles in March; channel inventory +16,000 vehicles, small additional inventory on the enterprise side, and continuous addition on the channel side. In January-March, the total wholesale volume was 272,000, +12.9% year on year. Looking ahead to April, the bank expects wholesale sales of the heavy truck industry to be around 93,000 vehicles, +11.9%/-19.7%, respectively.

Industry structure:

The penetration rate of new energy decreased month-on-month, and the penetration rate of new energy in the heavy truck industry was 7.03%, -0.6 pct month-on-month. In March, the sales volume of new energy products in the domestic heavy truck industry was 5280 vehicles, and the industry penetration rate was 7.0% (pure electricity+hydrogen energy+fuel cell), +4.6/-0.6 pct, respectively. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric heavy trucks was 5040 units, +188.8%/+151.5%; fuel cell heavy truck sales volume was 240 units, +106.9%/+860.0% year over month; natural gas heavy truck sales volume was 29,331 units, +207.8%/+205.8% year over month, respectively. Natural gas heavy truck sales accounted for 39.03%, and +26.6/+2.8pct, respectively. In March, NEV heavy trucks did not perform as well as fuel heavy trucks.

Company dimensions:

In March, production batches of major heavy truck companies were adjusted upward sequentially, and Sinotruk's sales performance led the industry. 1) Wholesale: The top five domestic heavy truck wholesale sales volume (including incomplete vehicles and semi-trailers) in March were Sinotruk/FAW Group/Dongfeng Automobile/Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck/BAIC Foton, with sales volumes of 3.01/2.61/2.10/1.771/0.97 million vehicles, respectively. The market share of the five companies was 26.0%/22.5%/18.1%/14.8%/8.4%, CR5 was 89.8%, the same month-on-month ratio, -1.1/0.3+pct, concentration changed positive from month to month; 2) Shanghai Insurance: in March, domestic heavy truck terminals were positive. Incurable amount (incl. non (Complete vehicles and semi-trailers) The top five companies were FAW Group/Sinotruk/Dongfeng Automobile/Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck/Beiqi Foton, with market shares of 24.2%/20.4%/19.2%/11.7%/9.7%, CR5 was 85.1%, +1.6/+0.3 pct, respectively, with a month-on-month increase in concentration.

Engine supporting dimensions:

Weichai's engine supply increased month-on-month. Jiefang/Sinotruk/Shaanxi Automobile all remained major suppliers, and the leading position for heavy truck engines was stable. 1) Engine company perspective: In March, Weichai Power supplied 28,000 units, +35.0%/+187.5%, respectively. The core supporting car companies are Sinotruk, FAW Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, Dongfeng Motor, and Dayun Group. The five automakers accounted for 37.8%/28.0%/24.4%/3.4%/2.2% of shipments, respectively, and CR5 was 95.9%, +8.7/-0.7 pct, respectively. Weichai Power's market share in the natural gas heavy truck engine segment was 68.0%, -0.9 pct. 2) Looking at automakers internally: Among Shaanxi Heavy Truck/Sinotruk/FAW Jiefang/Dongfeng Automobile/Foton Motor companies, Weichai engine support ratios were 78.1%/68.9%/43.1%/6.6%/5.4%, respectively, +32.9/+4.7/-0.4/-7.1pct year-on-year, and +0.8/-0.4/-0.9/+1.0pct, respectively. Weichai is the core supply chain for Shaanxi Auto/Sinotruk/Jiefang.

Risk warning: The recovery of the domestic heavy truck industry fell short of expectations, and the rise in natural gas prices exceeded expectations.