产品结构优化，“小品种”放量增长。2023 年上半年公司逐步退出“大品种”减水剂板块产品的生产，同时积极开拓湿电子化学品用表面活性剂、新能源胶树脂等成长性产品。根据公司2023 年主要经营数据，2023 年公司“大品种”板块产量0.68 万吨，同比减少83.50%，销量0.82 万吨，同比减少79.73%，平均售价6,999.61 元/吨，同比降低13.70%，实现营收0.58 亿元，同比下滑82.51%；另一方面，2023 年“小品种”板块产量13.33 万吨，同比增加8.81%，销量13.31 万吨，同比提升10.02%，平均售价13,777.42 元/吨，同比下降9.90%，实现营收18.34 亿元，同比减少0.87%。公司“小品种”产品顺利放量，同时未来将深耕”小品种”领域，产品盈利能力或持续增强。The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved operating income of 1,894 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.21%; realized net profit of 325 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.94%; and realized net profit without deduction of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.90%. Among them, 23Q4 achieved operating income of 488 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.81%, a decrease of 4.05%; realized net profit of 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.64% and an increase of 6.54% month-on-month; and realized net profit without return to mother of 88 million yuan, an increase of 71.98% year-on-year and 6.66% month-on-month. The company's “small variety” sector continued to expand, driving the company's overall performance to pick up and maintain the buying rating.
Key points to support ratings
Product prices fell, and gross sales margin increased. The company's operating income and net profit to mother declined year-on-year in 2023 due to a combination of factors such as market weakness, withdrawal of “large varieties” from production, and falling prices of related products. According to the company's main business data announcement for 2023, the average selling price of “large variety” products was 6999.61 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 13.70%, while the average selling price of “small variety” products was 13777.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.90% year-on-year. The company actively optimized the product structure to achieve an increase in gross sales margin. In 2023, the company's gross sales margin was 24.62%, up 1.20 pct year on year. Among them, gross sales margin for the fourth quarter was 26.11%, up 3.39 pcts year on year, and 1.03 pct month on month. In the future, with the restoration of industry prosperity and the optimization of the company's product structure, the company's profit level is expected to recover.
Product structure has been optimized, and the volume of “small varieties” has increased. In the first half of 2023, the company gradually withdrew from the production of “large varieties” of products in the water reducing agent segment, while actively developing growth products such as surfactants for wet electronic chemicals and new energy rubber resins. According to the company's main business data for 2023, the company's “large variety” sector produced 0.68 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 83.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 83.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 79.73%. The average selling price was 6,999.61 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 13.70%, achieving revenue of 58 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 82.51%; on the other hand, the “small variety” sector produced 133,300 tons, an increase of 10.02% over the previous year. 13,777.42 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9.90%, achieving revenue of 1,834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.87%. The company successfully launched “small variety” products, and at the same time, it will further cultivate the “small variety” field in the future, and product profitability may continue to increase.
Production capacity construction is progressing steadily. In 2023, Real Madrid will take good care of releasing production capacity to achieve part of the production capacity of 30,000 tons in the second phase. Through technical reform of the “large variety” workshop, Lukean switched to other main product lines. In addition, Real Madrid Kaimeike successfully started construction of the 330,000 ton annual output project (Phase I). In 2024, Lukean's 90,000 ton polyetheramine project is expected to be completed in the first half of the year. The company has an annual production capacity of nearly 300,000 tons of special surfactants. With the smooth progress of construction projects and the smooth release of small product varieties, the company's business scale is expected to continue to grow.
valuations
Based on fluctuations in raw material prices and changes in downstream market demand, the profit forecast is estimated to be 0.64 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.94 yuan for 2024-2026, and the corresponding PE is 15.3 times, 12.3 times, and 10.4 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's product restructuring and growth in the volume of small products, and maintain the purchase rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Project progress fell short of expectations, product prices fluctuated greatly, and downstream demand continued to be sluggish.
