Source: Finance Association
① Analysts said that since Iran will not carry out further attacks on Israel, the tension in the Middle East has eased; ② investors are gradually withdrawing from safe-haven assets. As of press release, the prices of assets such as gold, oil, and silver have all declined slightly.
Last week, the market poured into safe-haven assets due to fears of the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, and gold ushered in a fifth consecutive week of gains as a result. Up to this year, the price of gold has risen by nearly 15%. This increase is due not only to demand support from central bank purchases, but also to investors' early risk aversion to an uncertain future.
However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East seem to have been brought under control, and gold has had a weak start to the week. So far, although both Israel and Iran have attacked each other's territory, the two sides seem to have reached a tacit agreement, and no further large-scale actions have taken place.
As of press time, the spot price of gold fell 1.23% to $2,361. Nicholas Frappell, global head of marketing at ABC Refinery in Australia, said that Iran has downplayed Israel's attacks and said it will not retaliate. This fact has reduced some of the market's risk premiums.
He also pointed out that the bearish sentiment that suppressed oil prices on Monday also supported the idea of easing the situation in the Middle East. Up to now, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by 1.05%, showing a further decline after last week's 3.5% decline.
Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Groep NV, pointed out that oil prices do not seem to be affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the market now needs to see if US sanctions will affect Iran's capital flows before reacting.
Recently, the US House of Representatives passed new sanctions against Iran's oil industry. This measure is expected to be formally legislated within a few days, thereby undermining Iran's oil supply.
Despite this, fund managers are optimistic about the subsequent development of the oil market. Currently, the trading price of oil bullish options is significantly higher than that of put options, which shows that institutional investors are optimistic about the rise in crude oil.
In addition to oil and gold, ten-year US Treasury yields rose, while silver fell by about 3% after four weeks of soaring, and palladium and platinum prices also showed a decline.
Traders are awaiting further market signals. This week, the US will announce the Personal Consumer Price Index (PCE), which is one of the key indicators of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and will provide more clear guidance on interest rate cuts. And if this data is higher than market expectations, it is expected that it will put pressure on commodity prices such as gold.
editor/tolk