Jiajiayue released financial reports for 2023 and 24Q1: The company achieved operating income of 17.763 billion yuan in 2023Q1-4, -2.31% year on year 22, +16.37% year on year 19, and realized net profit of 136 million yuan, +127.04% year on year 22, -70.19% year on year 19, net profit margin of 0.77%, year-on-year.
In 24Q1, the company's revenue increased steadily, the cost side was controlled, and profits were basically maintained. The company achieved revenue of 5.189 billion yuan in 24Q1, +5.73% year-on-year, mainly due to improved operating quality of comparable stores, increased sales, and continued growth in the number of stores. Net profit attributable to mother was 147 million yuan, +7.10% year-on-year, and realized net profit deducted from non-mother was 136 million yuan, +1.05% year-on-year. Profit growth was steady, due to effective fee control and a decrease in expense ratios. 24Q1 gross margin was 24.04%, -0.62pct year on year, sales/management/financial expenses ratio was 16.92%/1.86%/1.24%, respectively, -0.18pct/-0.10pct/-0.12pct year on year.
The growth in the total number of stores was driven by the growth of franchise stores, and new stores focused on community fresh food and snack stores. The total number of stores at the end of 24Q1 was 1,065, +7.36% year over year, of which 999 were direct-operated/franchised companies, respectively, +4.17%/+100% year-on-year. By business type, comprehensive supermarkets/community fresh food supermarkets/country supermarkets/snack stores/Haohuixing discount stores/others are 261, 409, 227, 67, and 8, and 93, respectively. In 24Q1, 12 or 8 direct-run stores/franchised stores were added. Among the newly opened directly-managed stores, general supermarkets, community fresh supermarkets, snack stores, and Haohuixing discount stores were 2, 5, or 4 home/1, respectively. In 24Q1, 8 new direct-run stores were signed, an increase of 5 over the previous year.
Direct stores in all business formats have not increased their revenue and profit, gross margins have declined, and there is an urgent need to optimize the store model. Of the 24Q1 direct-run stores, comprehensive supermarkets/ community fresh supermarkets/ rural supermarkets/ other business revenue was 28.50/12.67/5.23/0.53 billion yuan respectively, +10.96%/+5.16%/4.16%/+46.66%, gross margin 19.77%/18.68%/18.67%/23.27%, respectively, -0.78pct/-1.10pct/-2.92pct.
In all regions, direct-run stores outside the province are expanding faster than within the province, and gross margins within and outside the province have declined. At the end of 24Q1, the number of direct-run stores in and outside the province was 864 house/ 135, compared with 833 house/126 in 23Q1, and +3.72%/+7.14% over the same period last year. In 24Q1, the main business revenue of direct-run stores in the province and outside the province was 38.38/856 billion yuan respectively, +8.63%/+9.81%, respectively, and gross margin was 19.47%/19.08%, respectively, -1.12pct/-0.55pct.
Recent trends: The company optimizes delivery efficiency, and the integration of online and offline optimizes the consumer experience. In 2023, the company launched a “scheduled delivery” project, with an on-time rate of delivery vehicles arriving at stores of over 80%, further improving store delivery capacity. On the channel side, the store-to-home business was promoted collaboratively. Online sales increased by 23.9%, driving 3.06 million offline visitors. The in-store conversion rate reached 35%, and supermarket online sales accounted for 5.98% at the end of 2023.
Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 19.7 billion yuan/21.9 billion yuan/21.9 billion yuan respectively in 2024/2025/2026, up 11.2%/6.7%/3.9%, net profit to mother of 360 million yuan/410 million yuan/5.1 billion yuan, +163%/+23% year-on-year, corresponding to PE 18X/16X/13X, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1. Decline in consumption power exceeds expectations; 2. Store traffic falls short of expectations; 3. Company opening stores falls short of expectations; 4. Competition for mass-selling snack shops intensifies.