Key points of investment:
The company released its 2024 quarterly report, and the results were basically in line with expectations: during the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 461 million yuan (YoY +11%, QoQ -7%), achieved net profit due to mother of 67 million yuan (YoY -10%, QoQ -28%), and realized net profit without return to mother of 65 million yuan (YoY -12%, QoQ -25%). The company's comprehensive gross profit margin for the 24Q1 quarter was 30.74%, with year-on-month changes of -10.95pct and +0.04pct, net profit margins of 14.62%, and year-on-month changes of -3.17pct and -4.86pct, respectively. In terms of expenses, 24Q1 sales, management and finance expenses ratio is 8.27% (QoQ-4.73pct). The 24Q1 company's revenue declined slightly month-on-month. We think it was mainly due to factors such as fluctuations in helium prices and the Spring Festival holiday; the month-on-month decline in net profit was mainly due to a rebound in income tax expenses, which increased single-quarter profits in 23Q4.
A number of projects have entered the commercialization stage one after another, and performance is expected to continue to improve month-on-month; domestic semiconductors and panels welcome a new round of capital expenditure, and new project orders are expected to land quickly. Since 2023, the company has successfully obtained electronic bulk gas projects such as Xi'an Xinxin, Guangzhou Zengxin, Guangzhou Guangxin, Shenzhen Saiyfa, and Beijing Xilex, consolidating the company's leading position in the field; at the same time, it has actively promoted the continuous construction and commercialization of electronic bulk gas stations for various key projects such as the Hefei Comprehensive Insurance Zone, Hefei Changxin Phase II, Beijing Changxin, and Shanghai Dingtai Jiangxin. As the gas consumption of the project gradually rises, the company's performance is expected to increase sequentially from quarter to quarter. Looking ahead, the domestic semiconductor and panel sector has ushered in a new round of capital expenditure, and tenders for several iconic projects are about to be launched. As a leading domestic electronic large-scale on-site gas production enterprise, the company is expected to fully benefit. At the same time, the company plans to build an air separation intelligent equipment manufacturing base project in the Jiande Economic Development Zone to build an autonomous and controlled equipment manufacturing production base and enhance the company's core competitiveness.
The decline in helium prices since 2023 has dragged down short-term performance to a certain extent, relying on the electronics bulk gas core industry to develop electronic specialty gas products and create a new strategic growth pole. Facing the cycle of changes in helium prices, the company's Guangzhou and Wuhan helium production bases were completed and put into operation. At the same time, it continued to develop more helium resources, develop high-quality domestic and foreign helium terminal customers, and establish an increasingly perfect global supply chain system through investment and construction, strengthened operation, and expanded terminals. The market supply capacity was steadily improving, further consolidating the company's leading position in the helium business. Relying on customer stickiness in the on-site gas production business and in-depth understanding of customer business, the company further developed, produced and supplied electronic special gas products, and actively promoted the development and construction of products such as C4F6 and HCl during the reporting period. The company announced that it plans to invest no more than 534.75 million yuan in the Chifeng nitrogen trifluoride electronic specialty gas R&D and production project (3000t/a), and no more than 393.24 million yuan for the electronic specialty gas R&D and production project in the Hefei Economic Development Zone, gradually expanding its product categories, expanding its business areas, and creating a new strategic growth pole.
Investment analysis opinion: Considering fluctuations in helium gas prices, the uncertainty of gas usage climbing in new projects, and the company's increasing R&D and investment in the specialty gas field, the 2024-2026 net profit forecast was lowered to 3.75, 5.37 billion yuan (original value was 4.14, 6.00, and 837 million yuan), and the current market value corresponds to PE of 34, 23, and 17X. According to Wind's unanimous expectations, it is comparable to the company's PE 34X in 2024. I am optimistic about the company's development and maintenance of the high-quality race track of electronic gas.” “Gain” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The construction progress of the on-site gas production project and the customer's gas consumption after production commencement fell short of expectations; 2) downstream capital expenditure slowed, and the company's new project orders fell short of expectations; 3) helium prices fluctuated sharply.