盈利预测与投资建议：预计2024-2026 年营业总收入分别为51.43、61.85、74.62 亿元，同比增速分别为13.50%、20.27%、20.65%；归母净利润分别为6.26、8.36、11.45 亿元，同比增速分别为16.58%、33.47%、36.95%，对应24-26 年PE 分别为42X、32X、23X，考虑到公司有望受益行业需求回暖，新品持续放量，给予“买入”评级。Incident: The company achieved operating income of 4.531 billion yuan in '23, a year-on-year decrease of 16.28%; net profit to mother of 537 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.93%; net profit after deducting 491 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.23%. 23Q4 achieved operating income of 1,111 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.87%; net profit to mother of 169 million yuan, an increase of 191.38%; net profit after deduction of 145 million yuan, an increase of 383.33% over the previous year.
Sales of computing chips are growing well, and memory chips are bottoming out. By category, the company's computing/storage/analog interconnection chip revenue was 1,108/29.12/409 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year change of +43.91%/-28.19%/-14.61%. The company's product line continues to be rich in the security field+pan-video field. T series products have a clear first-mover advantage in the dual camera and multi-camera markets, helping the company to increase significantly in product sales in the security market; there are batch shipments and product introduction in smart hardware markets such as printers and QR codes. LED driver chip application scenarios include automotive electronics that continue to extend to white electricity, office equipment, games, etc., and the growth momentum is sufficient, and the connected GreenPhy has entered the mass production stage. The company's gross profit margin for 23 years was 37.10%, down 1.46 pct year on year, 38% gross profit margin for 23Q4, up 0.14 pct year on year, and 1.27 pct month on month, all improving year on year.
The company's profitability has improved quarterly, and the recovery trend is obvious. The company's net interest rate for 23 years was 11.38%, a year-on-year change of -3.01pct. Among them, sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses rates were 6.91%, 3.95%, 15.63%, and -2.05%, respectively. The year-on-year changes were +1.53, +0.88, +3.77, and -0.8 pct, mainly due to the increase in the company's R&D investment, which built the core competitiveness of the product. 23Q4 net profit margin was 14.20%, up 9.69pct year on year and 2.23pct month-on-month. The company's profitability gradually improved over the past 23 years, emerging from a clear recovery trend.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Total revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 51.43 billion yuan, 61.85, and 7.462 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.50%, 20.27%, and 20.65% respectively; net profit to mother is 6.26, 8.36, and 1.145 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.58%, 33.47%, and 36.95%, corresponding to 24-26 PE 42X, 32X, and 23X respectively. Considering that the company is expected to benefit from the recovery in industry demand, new products will continue to be released to “buy” ” Ratings.
Risk warning: Industry competition intensifies; industry demand recovery falls short of expectations.
