The company released 24Q1 results:
Q1 revenue of 5.94 billion yuan (+18%), net profit of 160 million yuan (+27%), net profit after deduction of non-return to mother was 190 million yuan (+80%). The core of deducted non-return to mother is that the company lost 45 million yuan in the forward period. Excluding considerations, the whole was in line with expectations.
Revenue splitting? Air conditioning and export inventory went hand in hand, and Q1 revenue slightly exceeded expectations.
Looking at the revenue growth rate by category, we think of ice washing overseas > air conditioning overseas > air conditioning domestic > refrigerator domestic. According to data from three parties,
① According to Industry Online, the company's Q1 air conditioner shipment volume was +34%, and export sales were +19%. The air conditioner supply logic continued in export sales, and domestic OEM sales and independent brand shipments were active, driving the overall air conditioning growth rate.
② Domestic sales of the refrigerator M1-2 are -3%, but the main price increase for refrigerators is not increasing. Refer to the average price of Aowei Q1 +11%, which is in line with the refrigerator upgrade trend we have always indicated. Export shipments are +41%. The logic is similar to air conditioning.
How do you view profit? Net profit after deducting non-return to mother is even more impressive.
① Net profit growth rate after deducting non-return to mother was +80%, and there was no significant impact of exchange during the 23Q1 period. After excluding the forward impact of 45 million yuan, net profit attributable to mother was 3.4%, which is slightly higher than the net interest rate for 23 years (3.1%).
② In terms of gross margin, the 24Q1 gross margin was 13.4% (-1.3pct), mainly affected by the high growth rate of export sales and OEM. Both are typical businesses with low gross margins and low rates, so the impact is not significant.
③ Looking at the cost rate, the 24Q1 rate is 9.7% (-1.5pct), of which the sales rate is 7% (-0.9pct), the management rate is 1.2% (-0.4pct), the R&D rate is 2.2% (-0.3pct), and the financial rate is -0.7% (+0.1pct). In particular, management fees have all been reduced from month to month, reflecting the continuous improvement of corporate governance.
Investment advice: Strong performance is expected in Q2.
We believe that Q2 export sales will still have stock replenishment dividends, and we expect the Q2 growth trend to continue. Subsequent H2 mainly focused on domestic sales, which grew steadily under the impetus of trade-in & the continuation of the company's active upgrading of its own air washing brands & refrigerator upgrades & reduction in efficiency rates.
We expect revenue for 24/25/26 to be 271/300/32.9 billion yuan (+12%/+11%/+9%), profit of 8.9/10.5/1.2 billion yuan (+20%/+18%/+14%) (previous value was 9.1/10.9/1.25 billion yuan), corresponding to the 24-year PE of 12X, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: Real estate completion risk, risk of air conditioning growth falling short of expectations, risk of raw material price fluctuations, export sales falling short of expectations, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of untimely research information updates.