Introduction to this report:
The performance is in line with expectations. Focus on the May 1st holiday season catalyzed.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Under the trend of affordable travel, traditional scenic spots maintain higher resilience, maintain the company's 2024-2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts of 0.66/0.72/0.77 yuan respectively, maintain a target price of 16.6 yuan, and maintain an increase in holdings rating.
Performance summary: The company achieved revenue of 1,929 billion yuan in 2023, recovering to 120% in '19, of which sales revenue for hotels/ropeways/travel services/garden development/commercial housing recovered to 69/126/103/ 124% in the same period in '19, with gross profit of 1,042 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 54%, compared to 19-1.95pct, net profit of 423 million yuan, recovered to 125% in '19; 24Q1 Achieved revenue of 490 million yuan, recovering to 135% in '19, and gross profit of 219 million yuan, recovering to 115% in '19, with gross profit margin of 44.15%, year-on-year -7.38 pct, net profit attributable to mother of 15 million yuan, recovering to 359% in '19, after deducting losses of 16 million yuan for non-return mother, and loss of 0.7 billion yuan for the same period in '19.
The performance was in line with expectations: The performance slightly exceeded the previous forecast, but overall it was in line with expectations. The scenic area received 4.57 million visitors, recovering to 131% in '19, and the ropeway received 9.51 million visitors, recovering to 129% in '19. Considering the low base for the May 1st holiday in '23, there is still room to exceed expectations.
Later, focus on new projects and traffic improvements: ① The opening of the Chihuangshan High Speed Rail in June 2024 will promote passenger flow between Jiuhuashan and Huangshan, and will also drive the connection to the East China market. The completion of the Ningxuanhuang High Speed Rail is expected to drive passenger flow in Nanjing; ② the tourism service business led by Tuma Technology is growing rapidly; ③ the construction of the second phase of the Donghuangshan Project is progressing according to plan. Furthermore, Huicai stores are expected to accelerate the increase in store expansion.
Risk warning: weak demand, extended subsidy concessions, economic recovery falls short of expectations