Incidents:
The company disclosed its 2024 quarterly report, achieving revenue of 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.64%, net profit to mother of 61 million yuan, an increase of 229.50% year-on-year, and net profit of 60 million yuan after deducting non-return to mother, an increase of 228.87% over the previous year.
Shingles vaccine release drives performance growth
The 2024Q1 company's core revenue comes from the shingles vaccine and the chickenpox vaccine. The high year-on-year increase in performance was mainly due to increased sales of the shingles vaccine. According to Wind Pharmaceutical Bank data, since the beginning of 2024, the company has issued 13 batches of the shingles vaccine. The shingles vaccine is a major global vaccine. There are only two domestic manufacturers, GSK and Baike Biotech. We are optimistic about the company's sales of the shingles vaccine for the full year 2024. In terms of profitability, the company's profit margin continued to increase, with 2024Q1 gross profit margin of 89.72% (YoY +3.84pct), sales expenses ratio 36.98% (YoY -2.73pct), management expenses ratio 13.04% (YoY -4.74pct), R&D expenses ratio 17.37% (YoY -1.25pct), and net profit margin 22.41% (YoY +12.16pct).
Rich product pipeline layout
In terms of research pipeline, the company's liquid nasal spray influenza vaccine is about to apply for marketing approval; the DPT vaccine (three components) has completed phase I clinical trials and is being prepared for phase III clinical trials; rabies monoclonal antibodies are undergoing phase I clinical research; clinical trial applications for freeze-dried rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) and tetanus monoclonal antibodies have been approved, and phase I clinical research is about to be carried out; in addition, the products being developed by the company also include RSV vaccines, antibodies, and vaccines for Alzheimer's disease treatment, etc., forming a tiered product pipeline.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2,578/30.73/3.491 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.30%/19.17%/13.63%, net profit to mother of 7.81/954/1.03 billion yuan, year-on-year growth rates of 55.88%/22.21%/15.56%, EPS of 1.89/2.31/2.67 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 30.08%. Since the company is the first domestic manufacturer of the shingles vaccine, it is recommended to keep an eye on it.
Risk warning: risks such as changes in industry policies, declining demand for vaccines, increased market competition, falling short of expectations in sales, seasonal fluctuations, and a single product structure.