2023 年年末能繁存栏20.99 万头，公司资金相对宽裕截至2023 年年末公司共有能繁母猪存栏20.99 万头，较2022 年末的15.6万头新增约5.39 万头；公司母猪场存栏规模达28.4 万头，能繁产能或仍有一定提升空间。公司资金相对宽裕，截至2023 年年末仍有15 亿元货币资金，在实际经营过程中也在逐步推进品种改良、用高繁法系猪去代替美系猪等举措，提质增效稳步推进，养殖成本逐步拓潜。此外，根据收购天心种业时所签署的《业绩承诺与补偿协议》，除天心种业外，其余4 家子公司均完成了相应利润目标，天心种业原股东或将补偿8397 万元。Weak pig prices dragged down profits in 2023, and production capacity expanded in an orderly manner
The weak operation of pig prices was compounded by impairment charges, and the company achieved net profit of 1.2 billion yuan to the mother in 2023, an increase in losses over the previous year. Considering that the company's production cost optimization may still take some time, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 1.28 billion yuan (previous value of 216 million yuan, 1,523 million yuan), and added the 2026 profit forecast to 943 million yuan. Using the PB valuation method, refer to the average valuation value of a comparable company of 3.46X PB. Considering the company's relatively abundant capital and orderly expansion of production capacity, the company was given a valuation of 3.9 x PB in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 9.59 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Low pig prices dragged down profits in 2023. The company achieved revenue of 5.63 billion yuan in 2023, with a month-on-month increase in losses in 23Q4 and a year-on-year loss. The adjusted caliber was +12.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by an increase in the number of pigs released. After the merger with Tianxin Breeding Industry, the company's pig breeding advantage was enhanced, and the scale of listing grew at a high level. In 2023, 3.2 million pigs were sold, +75% over the same period last year. The company achieved net profit of 1.2 billion yuan in 2023, an increase in losses over the previous year. This was due to weak pig prices in 2023, compounded by the company's credit impairment and asset impairment losses totaling 275 million yuan. Specific: 1) Pigs: Export business revenue of 134 million yuan, -1.37% year on year, gross margin -17.9 pct year on year; domestic sales revenue of 3.62 billion yuan, 3% year on year, gross profit margin -14.7%, year on year -24.1pct; 3) Slaughter: revenue of 680 million yuan, -8.9% year on year, gross profit margin -0.85%, year-on-year -4.4 pct. Low pig prices compounded weak consumption, putting pressure on slaughter business operations. The company achieved net profit of 454 million yuan (108 million yuan after asset impairment) in 23Q4, turning losses year on year and increasing losses from month to month.
At the end of 2023, the company was able to reproduce 209,900 heads. The company's capital was relatively generous. By the end of 2023, the company had 209,900 sows, an increase of about 53,900 over 156,000 heads at the end of 2022; the company's sow farm had 284,000 heads, and production capacity may still have some room for improvement. The company is relatively well-funded. As of the end of 2023, it still has 1.5 billion yuan in monetary capital. In the actual operation process, it is also gradually promoting measures such as improving breeds and replacing American pigs with high-breeding pigs, making steady progress in improving quality and efficiency, and gradually expanding breeding costs. Furthermore, according to the “Performance Commitment and Compensation Agreement” signed at the time of the acquisition of Tianxin Seed Industry, with the exception of Tianxin Seed, the remaining 4 subsidiaries have all achieved corresponding profit targets, and the original shareholders of Tianxin Seed Industry may be compensated 83.97 million yuan.
The target price is 9.59 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating
We lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 1.28 billion yuan (previous value: 216 million yuan, 1,523 million yuan), and added the 2026 profit forecast to 943 million yuan. We adopted the PB valuation method. We expect the BVPS for 2024/25/26 to be 2.46/3.48/4.22 yuan, respectively. Referring to the average valuation value of a comparable company of 3.46X PB, considering the company's relatively abundant capital and orderly expansion of production capacity, the company was given a 2024 PB valuation, corresponding to a target price of 9.59 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Pig production capacity recovery is less than expected, risk of African swine fever epidemic, channel development results falling short of expectations, risk of pig price fluctuations, etc.