Introduction to this report:
The company's routine diagnostic revenue is growing steadily. Among them, immunoluminescence diagnosis is growing rapidly, biochemical and microbiological diagnosis is growing steadily, the international market is expanding rapidly, R&D is helping to develop new products, and long-term platformization can be expected. Maintain an increase in holdings rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Maintain the 2024-2025 EPS forecast of 2.63/3.22 yuan, and the 2026 EPS forecast is 3.89 yuan. Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2024 PE 24X will be given, the target price will be raised to 63.12 yuan, and the holdings increase rating will be maintained.
24Q1 results slightly exceeded expectations. The company achieved revenue of 4.444 billion yuan (+0.05%), net profit of 1,217 billion yuan (+4.28%), net profit after deducting non-return of 1,185 million yuan (+5.86%); Q1 in 2024 achieved revenue of 1,089 million yuan (+5.09%), net profit to mother of 324 million yuan (+33.93%), net profit of non-return to mother of 314 million yuan (+33.15%), and 24Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations.
Luminescence reagents are growing steadily and rapidly. Excluding the impact of revenue related to COVID-19 testing, revenue in '23 increased by about 16.64% year-on-year, including immunodiagnosis revenue of 2.48 billion yuan (+23.77%), biochemical reagents of 250 million yuan (+20.54%), and microbiological diagnosis revenue of 323 million yuan (+18.65%); the company focused on expanding overseas markets, with overseas revenue of 209 million yuan (+60.53%) in 23, which is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future.
In 2014, the proportion of Q1 high-speed light-emitting machine promotion increased smoothly. Luminescence reagents grew rapidly, microbiological diagnosis grew rapidly, biochemical reagents were stable, and molecular instrument installation and reagent volume improved markedly.
Research and development helps develop new products. The company continues to improve its product line through self-research and cooperation, and invested 656 million yuan in R&D in 23 years (accounting for 14.8% of revenue). The NGS production line realizes production prototyping and application testing of sequencing systems, and has batch production capacity. The Sikun 2000 series of genetic sequencers is being marketed in the non-clinical field; mass spectrometry production lines and nucleic acid mass spectrometry registration work are progressing steadily, while mass spectrometry quality control products have been launched, and drug sensitivity kits have entered the pilot phase. The development of the triple quadrupole liquid-quality combined system is progressing steadily according to the plan. The mass spectrometry system performance tests and inspection machine work have been completed, and the progress is in line with expectations.
Risk warning: New product development and sales fall short of expectations; collection policy uncertain