Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262): Excellent performance in the first year of 1Q24

1Q24 表现亮眼，维持买入评级

公司4/19 发布24 年一季报，1Q24 实现营收13.58 亿元（+15.16%yoy），归母净利润2.65 亿元（+16.64%yoy），扣非净利润2.67 亿元（+16.62%yoy），除3Q23 客观因素影响外，收入连续4 个季度维持15%+增速（收入同比增速：1Q23/2Q23/3Q23/4Q23/1Q24 18.8/21.1/12.2/17.6/15.2%）。24 年公司有望在院端诊疗复苏、管制麻醉进入放量周期及新品上市的多重驱动下业绩高增长，公司有望迎来业绩与估值双升。我们给予公司24-26 年EPS1.24/1.51/1.88 元，分部估值法给予目标价34.53 元（前值37.01 元）。

1Q24 高基数下收入利润快速增长，各项经营指标向好1）1Q23 高基数下，1Q24 收入利润快速增长，院端诊疗恢复较好：23 年1月客观环境影响下ICU 需求激增，我们推测公司部分麻醉用药（如咪达唑仑）增速较快，带动1Q23 收入利润高增长（收入增速：1Q23 +18.8%yoyvs 23 年+17.3%yoy ；归母利润增速： 1Q23 +20.5%yoy vs 23 年+15.1%yoy），高基数下1Q24 利润依然快速增长；2）伴随收入提升，规模效应显现：1Q24 销售费用率下降3.5pp（销售费用率：1Q24 32.2% vs 1Q2335.7% vs 1Q22 39.2% vs 1Q21 42.9%），管理费用率下降0.8pp。

诊疗复苏带动麻醉线强势增长，看好24-25 年业绩提速我们估算1Q24 公司工业板块实现15-20%收入增长，其中：1）麻醉线：

伴随管制麻醉快速放量（我们估算1Q24 管制麻醉收入2.5-3 亿元，24 年预期收入~12 亿元，+~50%yoy），带动麻醉线快速增长（我们估算1Q24 麻醉线收入增速~25%），我们预计24 年麻醉线收入增速~20%；2）精神线：我们估算1Q24 实现5-10%收入增速，全年有望实现~10%收入增速；3）神经线：我们估算1Q24 略有增长，但考虑到公司引进1 类新药氘丁苯那嗪片，我们预计24 年神经线翻倍增长。展望24 年，我们认为公司有望受益于院端诊疗复苏和高壁垒管制精麻&1 类新药放量，实现~20%收入增长。

研发加速推进，富马酸奥赛利定和氘丁苯那嗪片有望开启新品收获期1）富马酸奥赛利定（TRV130）：μ阿片激动剂，已于5M23 获批上市并于23 年底纳入国家医保，有望与芬太尼系列协同共振，我们预期峰值20+亿元；2）安泰坦（氘丁苯那嗪片）：2M24 自Teva 引进，20 年底纳入国家医保，我们预期峰值10+亿元；3）早期管线：NH600001 乳状注射剂（麻醉镇静，依托咪酯改构，中国2 期临床结束）、 NHL35700（抗精分，中国2期临床）、NH102（抗抑郁，中国1 期临床结束）、YH1910-Z02（抗抑郁，中国1 期临床结束）、 NH112（抗精分，中国1 期临床）、 NH130（帕金森，中国1 期临床）、NH300231（抗精分，中国1 期临床）等加速推进。

风险提示：带量采购核心产品销售下滑的风险，产品研发进入不达预期。

Strong performance in 1Q24, maintaining a buy rating

The company released its quarterly report for the year 24 on 4/19. 1Q24 achieved revenue of 1,358 million yuan (+15.16% yoy), net profit of 265 million yuan (+16.64% yoy), after deducting non-net profit of 267 million yuan (+16.62% yoy). In addition to 3Q23 objective factors, revenue maintained a 15% + growth rate for 4 consecutive quarters (year-on-year revenue growth rate: 1Q23/2Q23/3Q23/4Q23/1Q24 18.21.1/12.2/17.6/ 15.2%). In 24, the company is expected to see high performance growth driven by the recovery of hospital-side diagnosis and treatment, the entry of controlled anesthesia into the release cycle, and the launch of new products. The company is expected to experience both an increase in performance and valuation. We gave the company 24-26 EPS of 1.24/1.51/1.88 yuan, and the partial valuation method gave the target price of 34.53 yuan (previous value 37.01 yuan).

Revenue and profit grew rapidly under the 1Q24 high base, and various operating indicators improved 1) Under the 1Q23 high base, 1Q24 revenue and profit grew rapidly, and hospital-side diagnosis and treatment recovery was better: ICU demand surged in January '23. We speculate that some of the company's anesthetic drugs (such as midazolam) are growing faster, driving 1Q23's high revenue and profit growth rate (revenue growth rate: 1Q23 +18.8% yoyvs 23 +17.3% yoy; profit growth rate to mother: 1Q23 +20.5% yoy vs. 23 +15.1% yoy), 1Q24 profit continued to grow rapidly under a high base; 2) Along with the increase in revenue, the scale effect was evident: 1Q24 sales expenses decreased by 3.5pp (sales expense ratio: 1Q24 32.2% vs 1Q 2335.7% vs 1Q22 39.2% vs 1Q21 42.9%), and management expenses decreased by 0.8pp.

Recovery from diagnosis and treatment is driving strong growth in the anesthesia line. We are optimistic that the 24-25 performance will accelerate. We estimate that 1Q24's industrial sector will achieve 15-20% revenue growth, of which: 1) The anesthesia line:

Along with rapid dosage of controlled anesthesia (we estimate 1Q24 controlled anesthesia revenue of 250-300 million yuan, +~ 50% yoy), driving rapid anesthesia line growth (we estimate 1Q24 anesthesia line revenue growth ~ 25%), we expect anesthesia line revenue growth of ~ 20% in 24; 2) Mental line: We estimate 1Q24 to achieve 5-10% revenue growth rate, and can be expected to achieve ~ 10% revenue growth throughout the year; 3) Nervous line: We estimate 1Q24 to increase slightly, but considering the introduction of the new class 1 drug deuterobutadiene With Nazine tablets, we expect double neuronal growth in 24 years. Looking ahead to 24 years, we believe the company is expected to benefit from hospital-level diagnosis and treatment recovery and high barriers to control the release of essential narcotics & Class 1 new drugs, and achieve ~ 20% revenue growth.

Research and development accelerates, and ocelidine fumarate and deuterphenazine tablets are expected to begin the harvest period for new products 1) Oxelidine fumarate (TRV130): μ-opioid agonist, approved for marketing at 5M23 and included in national health insurance at the end of 23. It is expected to co-resonate with the fentanyl series. We expect a peak of 2.0+ billion yuan; 2) Antitan (deuterphenazine tablets): 2M24 was introduced from Teva and included in national health insurance at the end of 2020, and we expect a peak of 1 billion yuan + billion yuan; 3) Early lactating pipeline Injectables (anesthetic sedation, etomide modification NH600001 , Phase 2 clinical completion in China), NHL35700 (anti-sperm, Chinese phase 2 clinical), NH102 (antidepressant, end of phase 1 clinical trial in China), YH1910-Z02 (antidepressant, end of phase 1 clinical trial in China), NH112 (antisperm, phase 1 clinical in China), NH130 (Parkinson, China Phase 1 clinical), and NH300231 (antisperm, phase 1 clinical in China) are progressing at an accelerated pace.

Risk warning: There is a risk that sales of core products purchased in volume will decline, and product development will fall short of expectations.

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恩华药业(002262)：1Q24开年业绩表现亮眼

Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262): Excellent performance in the first year of 1Q24

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