Introduction to this report:
With the year-on-year increase in US dollar interest, the year-on-year increase in net interest income drives performance growth; it is expected that the company will focus on the financial service needs of overseas enterprises, rely on global transaction settlement advantages to seize opportunities for growth in overseas financial demand, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “gain” rating and maintain the target price of 15.33 yuan, corresponding to 21.84xPe and 2.62xPb in 2024. The company's 2024Q1 revenue/net profit to mother was 9.92/086 million yuan, -28.3%/37.38%; the weighted average ROE was +0.41pct year-on-year to 2.28%, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. Maintaining a profit forecast of 0.70/0.79/0.88 yuan for 24-26; maintaining a target price of 15.33 yuan, corresponding to 21.84xPe and 2.62xPb in 2024, maintaining an “incremental” rating.
The year-on-year increase in US dollar interest rates, and the year-on-year increase in net interest income drove the company's adjusted revenue to increase year-on-year, and the increase in net revenue from handling fees and commissions further boosted performance. 1) The company's net interest income in the first quarter of 2024 was +40.15% to 180 million yuan, contributing 160.50% of the adjusted revenue (operating income - other business expenses) increase. The main reason was the year-on-year increase in US dollar interest, and the interest rate level obtained from interest-bearing assets such as futures margin deposits brought about by the company's overseas business increased dramatically. 2) The amount of domestic futures transactions increased year-on-year, and the company actively carried out overseas market outlets and business layout, bringing the company's net revenue from handling fees and commissions 5.67% year-on-year to 137 million yuan, accounting for 22.87% of the adjusted revenue increase, further driving performance growth.
Focusing on the financial service needs of overseas enterprises, the company relies on global transaction settlement advantages to seize opportunities for growing demand for overseas financial services, and is expected to achieve growth exceeding expectations. 1) The release of the new “National Nine Rules” requires financial institutions to handle functional and profitable relationships and continuously improve service capabilities.
2) The company has a large number of transaction clearing licenses on major overseas exchanges, and has significant advantages in global transaction settlement capabilities. It is expected to focus on the financial service needs of overseas enterprises, with expanding the scale of overseas clearing business as a key direction, seizing opportunities for customer demand growth and achieving performance growth that exceeds expectations.
Catalyst: The process of domestic enterprises “going global” is accelerating.
Risk warning: Interest rates in overseas markets have dropped sharply.