Brief performance review
On April 19, 2024, the company disclosed its annual report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 7.970 billion yuan, an increase of 6.85% over the previous year; realized net profit of 462 million yuan, an increase of 29.75% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 501 million yuan, an increase of 33.25% year on year. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 2.165 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.96%, net profit to mother of 39 million yuan, and net profit of non-return to mother of 76 million yuan, reversing the year-on-year loss.
Management analysis
The photovoltaic glass business volume has increased rapidly, and Malaysia's production capacity profitability continues to increase. In 2023, the company's photovoltaic glass business achieved revenue of 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.08%, and a year-on-year increase of 16.42pct. The significant year-on-year increase in revenue and profitability was mainly due to the continuous optimization of yield and production unit consumption after the company's production capacity in Ningxia and Malaysia reached full capacity. Among them, the Malaysian subsidiary achieved revenue of 444 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107%, net profit of 47 million yuan, and a net interest rate of 10.6%, an increase of 1.0 pct over 1H23.
The second line in Tengzhou has been upgraded, and TCO glass is expected to become a new growth point in 24. The company completed the 600T/D production capacity TCO upgrade project for the second line in Tengzhou last year, further enhancing the company's TCO glass supply capacity. In 2023, due to production line transformation and discontinuation of production, Tengzhou Jinjing's loss increased sharply year-on-year, and net profit was only -77 million yuan. Considering that the TCO production line was started and put into operation in September last year, it is expected that TCO will become a new growth point for the company this year, significantly increasing the net profit of the PV sector.
Soda ash performed well in 2023, and profits may be under pressure this year. In 2023, Shandong Haitian achieved revenue of 3.484 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and net profit of 569 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%.
According to statistics from the China Chlor-Alkali Network, the price of soda ash has continued to drop since the beginning of the year. The price of heavy soda ash has dropped from 2,936 yuan/ton to 1,957 yuan/ton, a drop of 33%. It is estimated that the company's soda ash business profit or impact will decline this year.
Continue to increase investment in R&D to drive business transformation through innovation. In 2023, the company's R&D expenses were 239 million yuan, up 15% year on year, and the R&D cost rate was 3.00%, up 0.23 pct year on year. The number of R&D personnel hit a new high in recent years, reaching 470 people, an increase of 109% year on year. With the development of various new businesses, the company continues to increase investment in R&D and gradually shifts to a new quality productivity model centered on innovation.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
According to the company's annual report and our latest judgment on each business, the adjusted net profit for 2024-2025E is 5.12 (-33.5%) and 6.06 (-33.8%) billion yuan. The net profit for 2026 is estimated to be 757 million yuan, corresponding to PE 16, 14, and 11 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Product prices fell short of expectations; raw material prices rose above expectations; new business expansion fell short of expectations.