The three major businesses grew steadily, and the net profit returned to the mother completed the employee shareholding assessment. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 26.566 billion yuan (+10.91%) and net profit to mother of 1,306 billion yuan (+19.82%). The company's clean energy business sales increased year-on-year, the gross profit per ton remained basically stable, and the energy service and specialty gas business generated incremental revenue and profits. The company completed the 2023 performance assessment target of the employee stock ownership plan (net profit to mother is not less than 1.2 billion yuan); the 2024 assessment target is 1.25 billion yuan.
The net price ability withstands the impact of falling gas prices, and the profitability of the clean energy business is stable. International natural gas prices fluctuated and fell in 2023, and domestic gas market volume increased and prices fell. The company's LNG and PNG sales revenue was 14.69 billion yuan (+16.86%), and sales volume was 2.276 million tons (+55.5%), with a gross margin of 470 yuan/ton, which is a year-on-year narrowing. The LPG business is developing steadily, with sales revenue of 8.81 billion yuan, sales volume of 1.91 million tons, gross margin of 256 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the previous year, promoting the Huizhou liquefied hydrocarbon terminal project (50,000 ton level) and supporting LPG storage base project. Construction officially began on May 30, 2023.
Energy operations and energy logistics businesses are developing rapidly. The company's energy operation service revenue is 1,558 billion yuan, the supporting service volume for natural gas recycling and treatment is 380,000 tons, and the service revenue per ton is basically stable; it has more than 110 natural gas wells in operation, and lays out low-production and inefficient auxiliary extraction services. In 2023, the company's energy logistics service sales revenue was 282 million yuan. The company independently controlled the total annual turnover capacity of ships in operation and under construction, with a total annual turnover of 4 to 5 million tons, and a total of 47 foreign shipments in 2023; it had an annual turnover of 1.5 million tons of LNG and LPG; and over 100 LNG tankers in operation.
Helium production has increased rapidly, anchoring aerospace specialty gases. In 2023, the company's helium revenue was 50 million yuan, and sales of high-purity helium gas were 310,000 square meters, an increase of more than 60% year-on-year under comparable caliber; on-site hydrogen production capacity was 20,000 m3/hour, sales volume was 50 million square meters, and revenue was 110 million yuan. In 2024, the company's special gas business terminal will anchor aerospace special gas, accelerate the construction of the Hainan commercial space launch site special combustion special gas supporting project and the Elshi Phase II project, and promote the signing and construction of the East China (Zhenjiang) retail gas station.
Capital operations are frequent, improving the business pattern of one main and two wings. The company acquired 70% of Zhengtuo Gas's shares, 70% of Henan Zhongneng's shares, 100% of Jiangsu Aixiang's shares, and 12% of Huayou Zhonglan's shares, increasing capital in Huizhou Port, with a total major equity investment of 420 million yuan (+67%).
Risk warning: Fluctuating gas prices, weakening downstream demand, project progress falling short of expectations Investment advice: adjust profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. Taking into account factors such as the decline in domestic and foreign gas prices and the progress of commercial aerospace development, the estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is 15.4/18.2/2.0 billion yuan (the original forecast is 16.2/1.79 billion yuan for 2024/2025, adding the 2026 forecast), with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.1% /17.9/ 10.1%, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 11.0/9.4/8.5X, maintaining a “buy” rating.