分红派息：公司拟每10 股派发2.09 元（含税）现金红利（对比22 年未分配），合计派发1.52 亿元，现金分红比例36.05%，对应当前股息率1.62%。Incident: The company released its annual report for the year 23, and achieved revenue of 1,929 million yuan/yoy +20% compared to year 19, and realized net profit of 423 million yuan/yoy +421%, +24% compared to year 19, net profit of 391 million yuan/yoy +315%, after deducting net profit of 391 million yuan/yoy +315% compared to 19. Along with the recovery of the domestic tourism market in '23, the number of people entering the Huangshan Scenic Area increased by 227% year-on-year, driving revenue growth and the release of operating leverage. In the 23Q4 alone, the company achieved revenue of 495 million yuan/yoy +148%, compared with 19Q4, and realized net profit of 15 million yuan/yoy +121%, and 19Q4 was only 0.4 billion yuan.
By business: 1) The company's ropeway revenue in '23 was 700 million yuan/yoy +208%, compared to '19, with a gross profit margin of 88.5%, 1.3 pct higher than the peak in '19, a record high. The main reason was that ropeway passenger traffic reached a record 9.5 million passengers/yoy +208%, +29% compared to 19; 2) The hotel business achieved revenue of 460 million yuan/yoy +107%, compared to the 17-year peak; 3) Travel service revenue 470 million yuan/yoy +122%, +3% compared to 19, gross profit margin 9.2%, 2.3 pct gap compared to 19; 4) Scenic area revenue 265 million yuan/yoy +222%, gross profit margin 45.9%; 5) Huicai's revenue was 239 million yuan/yoy +85%, gross profit margin 16.2% /yoy+1.9pct.
Transportation improvements are imminent, and products and marketing are being strengthened. On April 19, Anhui Feiyang Airlines Operation and Development Co., Ltd. was inaugurated in Huangshan City, actively encrypting, restoring and adding routes from Huangshan to domestic and foreign cities, and signed strategic cooperation agreements with Beijing Atebo Travel, Shanghai Kaixin Mahua, and Zhejiang Feiyang International Travel. The establishment of Feiyang Airlines can introduce domestic and foreign passenger traffic to the Huangshan Scenic Area. Combined with the subsequent opening of the Chihuang High Speed Rail and the Xuanji High Speed Rail, traffic around the company will be greatly improved. The signing of the strategic cooperation agreement has further helped to enrich the diversity of infrastructure and cultural tourism consumption projects within the scenic area. New marketing methods such as short videos and live broadcasts further expand the visibility and influence of the scenic area, bringing room for growth in the popularity, passenger traffic, and customer unit price of the Huangshan Scenic Area.
Dividend payout: The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.09 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares (compared to undistributed in '22), for a total of 152 million yuan, with a cash dividend ratio of 36.05%, corresponding to the current dividend rate of 1.62%.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Huangshan has unique superior natural resource endowments. As summer passenger flow continues to recover, it is expected to meet the growing demand for surrounding and long-term travel. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 20.9/22.6/2.42 billion yuan, up 9%/8%/7% year on year, and net profit to mother will be 4.8/52/550 million yuan respectively, up 13%/9%/9% year on year. The current stock price corresponding PE is 20/18/17X, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of natural weather changes, risk of consumption power fluctuations.
