23Q4 hit a new quarterly revenue high, and 24Q1 hit quarterly net profit. The company released the 23-year annual report and 24Q1 quarterly report, with 23-year revenue of 4.625 billion yuan (yoy +36.68%) and net profit of 609 million yuan (yoy +35.26%), of which Q4 revenue was 1,431 billion yuan (yoy +48.56%, qoq +16.13%), and net profit to mother of 154 million yuan (yoy +73.39%, qoq -14.44%). 24Q1 revenue of 1,417 million yuan (yoy +55.22%, qoq -1.00%), net profit to mother of 219 million yuan (yoy +66.24%, qoq +42.47%). Considering the subsequent intensification of competition in the industry, we expect the company's net profit to be RMB 8.52/11.68/1500 million yuan in 24-26 years (the previous value was RMB 1,039/1.397 billion yuan in 24-25 years). Comparable companies consistently expect the average PE value to be 33.0 times. Considering that the company's product upgrades are obvious and international expansion has advantages, the company was given a 20% comparable valuation premium, 39.6 times PE target in 24, and a target price of 83.44 yuan (previous value of 67.86 yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Domestic and foreign customers contributed, and the company showed strong revenue growth momentum. 23Q4's revenue broke through 1.4 billion yuan for the first time and hit a quarterly high of only -1% month-on-month. At the same time, 24Q1 revenue was far better than the industry's performance. The month-on-month increase in 23Q4's revenue was mainly: ① Ideal L7/L8 production was +47%/+23% month-on-month, which led to a month-on-month increase in the company's body product shipments; ② European VW/FAW-VW/SAIC Volkswagen production increased +3%/+8%/+19% month-on-month, respectively, improving lighting control shipments; ③ Contributing to the continuous decline in Tesla product capacity. 24Q1 significantly outperformed the industry in the context of domestic passenger car production of -29% month-on-month. It is expected to contribute mainly to the continued rise in mass production of Ford and Tesla light control products.
Quarterly fluctuations in gross margin are expected to be affected by changes in product structure and the upward period of mass production. 23Q4 gross margin is 26.81% (qoq -3.75pct), and 24Q1 gross margin is 31.97% (qoq+5.17pct). The estimated reasons are: ① The gross margin of vehicle body area and USB products is lower than the average gross profit margin. Due to quarterly changes in customer production, the two types of products are expected to increase their share in Q4, and the gross margin decline in Q4; ② Q1 high-margin lighting control continues to rise in production capacity for new customers, increasing overall gross margin. interest rate.
Q4 The company's three sales/management/R&D rates and Q3 +0.18pct month-on-month and 24Q1 -0.14pct month-on-month. Of these, the sales rate increased month-on-month in both quarters, which is expected to result in the development of new projects, but the three-year rate and -2.11 pct compared to '22 showed a clear trend of scale dilution in the context of rapid growth in the company's revenue. The net profit of the joint venture company Cosco in '23 was +69% year-on-year to 240 million yuan, and the return on profit-increasing investment was significant.
It once again emphasizes Keboda's core competitiveness. In line with changes in the EE architecture, product iteration and international development. In the context of vehicle E/E architecture iteration, the company has the ability to upgrade and iterate products around vehicle “control”. The value of bicycles has increased from a few hundred yuan during the original lighting control and motor control period to nearly 10,000 yuan of current multi-category domain control; working simultaneously at home and abroad. The new domain control products have experienced the exercise of new forces such as Ideal and NIO. The company has gained the hard power of innovative research and development to develop more domestic customers and globally Expanding the range of profitable customers, the company is doing Follow this long-term winning development path.
Risk warning: Production and sales in the downstream automotive industry fall short of expectations; development of new projects falls short of expectations.