The first-quarter results for Autobio Diagnostics Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603658) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. The results were mixed; although revenues of CN¥1.1b fell 12% short of analyst estimates, statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.56 beat expectations by 17%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Autobio Diagnostics' nine analysts is for revenues of CN¥5.13b in 2024. This would reflect a decent 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 14% to CN¥2.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥5.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.67 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥62.84 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Autobio Diagnostics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥66.41 and the most bearish at CN¥56.85 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Autobio Diagnostics is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Autobio Diagnostics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 15% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 19% annually. Autobio Diagnostics is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥62.84, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Autobio Diagnostics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Autobio Diagnostics is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.