Key points of investment:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report.
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 484 million yuan (+27.0%), net profit of 146 million yuan (+38.4%) to mother, and deducted non-net profit of 137 million yuan (+39.4%).
2024Q1 achieved revenue of 141 million yuan (-14.9%), net profit of 45.54 million yuan (-13.3%) to mother, and deducted non-net profit of 44.88 million yuan (-13.2%).
The 23-year results are in line with expectations, and the dividend ratio is impressive. 24Q1 was affected by a high base, and revenue growth was disrupted.
The 2023 Annual Report is basically consistent with the revenue and profit side of the Express Report. The company's overall gross profit margin was 58.81% (a slight decrease of 0.47pct), the cost ratio was properly controlled, and the net profit margin was 30.27% (2.48pct increase).
The payment fee for the restoration of shares was 1.77 million yuan, and the mother was 148 million yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, with a dividend ratio of 61%.
Affected by the high base of 23Q1, the company's 24Q1 revenue growth rate was disrupted, but the compound revenue growth rate was still 18.4% compared to 22Q1.
The overseas growth rate is excellent, and the product structure continues to be optimized. We are optimistic that overseas volumes will continue to grow at a high rate.
Foreign revenue in 2023 was 422 million yuan (+41.4%), gross profit margin 58.4% (+2.25pct).
The company actively lays out overseas localized marketing networks and continues to promote overseas channel construction to achieve rapid overseas business growth. Through differentiated advantages such as portable color supermarkets, the company continues to cooperate with leading international manufacturers such as Bud and Canon, and overseas revenue is expected to continue to grow at a high rate.
As the research project continues, the introduction of new products will enable different clinical application scenarios.
The company's artificial intelligence-assisted diagnostic system has obtained Class II certification and Class III clinical trials; the low-power miniaturized ultrasound diagnostic system has completed second-generation product pre-research; the next-generation high-end ultrasound ultrasound has been sold in some overseas countries, and domestic registration is being applied for.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
Based on the adjusted profit forecast based on regular reports, we expect the company's net profit to be RMB 21/27/350 million for 2024-2026 (previously $21/280 million in 24-25) and a CAGR of 34.1%.
In 2024, the company's cooperative products with Philips will enter a complete release cycle. The company is expected to achieve accelerated growth in performance, maintain a 24-year PE valuation of 23 times, corresponding to a target price of 43.01 yuan, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Product promotion in collaboration with Philips fell short of expectations; evidence and promotion of new products fell short of expectations; marketing in the non-medical field of ultrasound may encounter uncertainty; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.