Key points of investment:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The Q1 profit increased significantly. The company's revenue for the year 23 was 4.44 billion yuan (+0.05%), excluding revenue related to COVID-19 testing, which increased 16.6% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.22 billion yuan (+4.3%), after deducting 1.19 billion yuan (+5.9%).
24Q1 revenue was $1.09 billion (+5.1% YoY), attributable to mother $324 million (+33.9% YoY), or less $314 million (YoY +33.2%).
The growth rate of the endogenous business was steady, and the improvement of the business structure raised profit levels. The apparent growth rate in 23 years was dragged down by COVID-19 products. The growth rate of the endogenous business was steady; improvements in the reagent business structure led to an increase in overall gross margin of 5.23 pcts. The high profit increase in 24Q1 was due to the increase in gross margin of the low-base superposition business due to inventory impairment in the same period last year.
Immunotesting revenue is steady. Overall marginal improvement in the gross margin of reagent products by product. In 23 years, reagent revenue was 3.81 billion yuan (+8.1%), gross profit margin 70.94% (+4.4pct); instrument revenue was 480 million yuan (-33.0%), and gross profit margin was 33.54% (-3.2pct).
By sector, immunodiagnostic revenue was 2.48 billion yuan (+23.8%), gross margin increased slightly by 1.6 pct to 80.1%; microbiological testing revenue was 320 million yuan (+18.7%), and gross margin remained flat at 45.08%; biochemical testing revenue of 250 million yuan (+20.54%), gross margin increased slightly by 4.6 pct to 63.4%; molecular diagnosis revenue was 0.17 billion yuan, down 79.2% year on year, and gross margin increased sharply by 38.6 pct to 59.1%.
The IVD multi-platform layout is progressing smoothly, and overseas expansion is growing rapidly. Looking at the potential for subsequent acceleration by region, domestic revenue was 4.16 billion yuan (-1.82%), gross margin increased 5.49pct to 67.39%; overseas revenue was 210 million yuan (+60.5%), and gross margin increased 16.0 pct to 37.8%.
The AutoChem B801 series of fully automatic biochemical analyzers was certified; microbiological testing: Autofms obtained the first EU IVDR certificate in China, and the triple quadrupole progress was in line with expectations; the Sikun 2000 series sequencer was launched in the non-clinical field. In the field of coagulation testing, partner Hickens Medical launched AutoCimo C6000, a fully automatic coagulation analyzer.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
Disturbed by industry policies, we expect the company's EPS in 2024-2026 to be 2.6/3.2/4.0 yuan (2.6/3.2 in the previous 24/25), corresponding PE is 21/17/14 times, and the valuation is lower than the comparable company average. Antu Biotech is a pioneer in IVD platforming in China. It gave the company 25 times PE in 2024, corresponding to the 2024 target price of 65.48 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Competition increases risk, policy risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, risk of new product development and promotion falling short of expectations, and risks associated with registration and certification.