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特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌破关键水平 100美元则指日可待?

Is Tesla (TSLA.US) falling below the key level of $100 just around the corner?

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 20 06:00

Tesla shares fell for the sixth day in a row and fell below a key level on Friday

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tesla (TSLA.US) stock price fell for the sixth day in a row and fell below the key level on Friday, which indicates that there may be more declines in the future.

Earlier, Tesla recalled 3,878 2024 Cybertrucks. The vehicle's accelerator pedal or jamming caused unexpected acceleration, increasing the risk of collision. The news may come as a shock to investors, although this is normal in the automotive industry.

Despite this, recalls are still normal business for car companies. Over the past 12 months, America's top automakers have recalled around 30 million vehicles. Tesla has recalled around 2.6 million cars. Unless a fix is expensive or involves a major safety issue, recalls generally won't affect stock prices. Most of the recalls are aimed at keeping cars as safe as possible on the road.

So why is Tesla's stock being affected? This is probably because the number of Cybertrucks that have been recalled is small, with only 3,878. While that number looks like good news, it's probably all the vehicles the company has delivered so far.

Tesla began delivering Cybertrucks at the end of November last year. According to the recall notice, from then until mid-April, production was suspended to fix the accelerator pedal problem, and Tesla delivered around 200 vehicles every week.

Currently, Tesla has not listed Cybertruck data separately in its delivery results; investors and analysts can only try to track the situation through vehicle registrations or registration data. These data suggest that 5,000 to 6,000 vehicles should already be on the road.

The difference between this number and the 3,878 Cybertrucks implied in the recall notice seems small, but Wall Street expects the delivery volume of 40,000 to 50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024. Tesla will have to drastically increase production to reach this goal. The company's ultimate goal is to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks per year, or about 5,000 per week. CEO Musk said this production could be reached in 2025.

This week has been a tough week for Tesla shareholders. Its stock price is falling every day, with a total weekly decline of about 14%. The news of large-scale layoffs announced by the company on Monday triggered a sharp drop in stock prices.

The company closed the week with a market capitalization of about 460 billion US dollars, lower than the market value of ExxonMobil (XOM.US) of about 475 billion US dollars, for the first time since January 2023. ExxonMobil shares rose 1.2% on Friday.

According to Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, Tesla's stock price has fallen 41% so far this year, falling below the technical support level of 149 US dollars. The next important support level is about 100 US dollars.

Probably the only thing that could stop the stock price from falling further is Tesla's earnings report on Tuesday. The company is expected to report earnings of around 50 cents per share, down from 85 cents in the first quarter of 2023. More important than the earnings report, however, is Musk's views on Tesla's plans to re-accelerate growth, as deliveries in the first quarter were around 387,000 vehicles, down nearly 9% year over year. Stockton pointed out that if he fails to deliver on his promises, Tesla's drop to $100 is just around the corner.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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