Global macroscopic
Before the Friday market, the three major indices fell sharply before the market
Is the US debt panic sell-off making a comeback? Blame the Federal Reserve's “Big Three” for mentioning these two words: interest rate hikes
New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams (John Williams), the “No. 3 person” of the Federal Reserve, said in response to questions at a meeting in Washington on Thursday that another rate hike was not his basic prediction. But he also added, “If the data reminds us that we need to raise interest rates to achieve our goals, then we obviously want to do that.” Shortly after his remarks came to an end, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose by about 5 basis points to around 4.99%, and once again approached the 5% mark, close to the high end of the recent fluctuation range.
FED interest rate hike speech+Middle East explosion! Asian stock markets have plummeted one after another, and gold and crude oil have soared
Markets in many parts of Asia fell sharply on Friday (April 19), as the possibility of the Fed's interest rate hike was put back on the “table” by Federal Reserve officials, and geopolitical risk aversion in the Middle East further heated up. Meanwhile, commodity prices such as gold and crude oil jumped rapidly. The Nikkei 225 Index opened low today, falling 2.66% during the day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index recently fell 2.3%, which may be the biggest drop since March 2023. Furthermore, the three major US stock indices also fell more than 1% during the day.
Don't be in a hurry to read the bottom! “Wall Street magic operator” warns: there will be a wave of sell-off in US stocks in the next few weeks
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, who has the title of “the magic operator of Wall Street,” warned not to buy when the stock market falls now, because the stock market will experience a wave of sell-off in the next few weeks before it actually bottoms out. Earlier, Tom Lee made a very accurate forecast of the US stock trend in 2023. He pointed out that the market volatility indicator VIX is soaring, and rising volatility usually triggers investors to sell off, which may put pressure on the stock market in the short term. However, if the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further, then US stocks may bottom out next month or even earlier.
Wells Fargo Sings More Gold: Learning from History, Bigger Gains Are Still to Come
The Wells Fargo Investment Research Institute said that after reaching a record high this year, gold still has room to rise because “changes in the interest rate pattern may be a particularly strong tailwind.” According to Wells Fargo data, historically, in the 24 months after the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, the price of gold rose by an average of 20%. Wells Fargo analysts said, “We have raised our forecast for 2024 to $2,300 to $2,300 per troy ounce, and even higher in 2025 to $2,500 per gold ounce. We suspect that the price of gold may need to take a breather before rising in 2025.”
Hot news
Most of Star Technology's stocks fell before the market
Netflix fell more than 6% before the pre-market, and Q2 revenue guidance fell short of expectations, suggesting that user growth is slowing down
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$It fell more than 6% to $572 in the premarket. Netflix's overall results for the first fiscal quarter were better than expected, with revenue of 9.37 billion US dollars, and analysts expected 9.26 billion US dollars; earnings per share were 5.28 US dollars, analysts expected 4.52 US dollars; the number of paid streaming users increased by 9.33 million, and analysts expected an increase of 4.84 million. The company expects revenue of 9.49 billion dollars for the second fiscal quarter, which is slightly lower than analysts' expectations of 9.51 billion US dollars. Furthermore, the company announced that starting from the first quarter of 2025, it will no longer report the number of new subscribers on a quarterly basis, but will only announce it when it reaches a major point. According to some analysts, the company warned that “typical seasonal factors will cause the increase in users in the second quarter to be lower than in the first quarter,” which suggests that the positive trend in user growth will slow down.
Paramount Global rose more than 9% before the market. Rumor has it that Sony is in negotiations with Apollo on a joint acquisition
$Paramount Global-B (PARA.US)$The pre-market increase was more than 9% to $11.96. People familiar with the matter revealed that Sony and Apollo Global Management are considering joining forces to bid for film and television giant Paramount Global. People familiar with the matter said that the two companies have yet to submit an official offer. Last week, Tony Vinciquerra, head of Sony Pictures Entertainment, discussed cooperation with Apollo. According to reports, Sony Apollo will buy shares in Paramount Global in cash and privatize Paramount Global through a joint venture.
Microsoft earnings are coming next week! Bank of America predicts that AI will help “keep pace”, and stock prices can rise 19%
Wall Street is eagerly awaiting financial reports from big tech companies to uncover signs that the AI revolution is progressing smoothly. However, the Bank of America believes$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The fiscal third quarter earnings report to be released next week may show the power of the AI boom. The bank raised its revenue forecast by 1%, mainly due to strong performance in the Azure and Microsoft 365 divisions. The bank maintains a target price target of $480 for Microsoft, which means the stock has the potential to rise nearly 19% from Thursday's closing price.
The outlook for the chip market is not optimistic, TSMC issues a warning
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The outlook for the expansion of the chip market was lowered, warning that the smartphone and PC computer market is still weak, and the growth forecast for the semiconductor market (excluding memory chips) in 2024 was lowered from more than 10% to about 10%. “Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties remain and may affect consumer confidence and terminal market demand,” Wei Zhejia told analysts during a conference call. Today, TSMC's stock price in Taiwan once fell by more than 6%, the biggest intraday decline in about 18 months. As of press release,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$US stocks fell nearly 2% in the premarket.
P&G's Q3 performance was mixed, raising full-year EPS guidelines
$Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$Q3 sales were $20.2 billion, up 1% year over year, falling short of market expectations of $20.4 billion; endogenous sales excluding the impact of foreign exchange, acquisitions, and asset divestments increased 3% year over year. Core earnings per share were $1.52, better than market expectations of $1.42. The company expects adjusted earnings per share to grow by 10%-11% in 2024, higher than the previous forecast of 8%-9%. The company maintained its forecast of 2%-4% sales growth for the full year.
American Express's Q1 revenue increased 11% year over year, and profit exceeded expectations
$American Express (AXP.US)$Q1 revenue was US$15.8 billion, up 11% year over year, slightly higher than market expectations of US$15.77 billion; net profit was US$2.4 billion, compared to US$1.8 billion in the same period last year; earnings per share were US$3.33, better than market expectations of US$2.95. The company's credit card spending increased 6% to $367 billion, slightly higher than market expectations of $366 billion. The credit loss reserve was 1.3 billion US dollars, up from 1.1 billion US dollars in the same period last year, but in line with market expectations. Furthermore, the company still expects revenue growth of 9%-11% in 2024.
Focus on China Securities
Most of the popular Chinese securities stocks fell before the market
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
(The following are all Beijing time)
22:30 2025 FOMC Voting Committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby participated in the Q&A session
At 04:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve released the Financial Stability Report
TBD The IMF and World Bank will hold their 2024 Spring Meeting until April 20
Bitcoin halving pending
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