公司的乌灵系列包括乌灵胶囊、灵泽片、灵莲花颗粒等以乌灵菌粉作为核心原料研发生产的品种，根据年报，2023 年公司乌灵系列实现营业收入12.28 亿元，同比增长12.42%，毛利率高达86.50%。根据业绩快报，2023 年乌灵胶囊的销售数量同比增长17.51%，销售金额同比增长9.12%，销售金额的增速低于销售数量的增长，主要是由于集采降价所致。根据投资者交流记录，截至2024 年3 月，乌灵胶囊已经进入广东联盟、北京市、江苏省、福建省、天津市等地区的集中带量采购。随着集采区域的扩容增加，乌灵胶囊正在加速实现销售放量，根据一季报，2024 年Q1 公司乌灵胶囊的销售数量同比增长43.86%，销售金额同比增长37.25%。我们认为，整个乌灵系列市场空间广阔：1）乌灵胶囊集采降价幅度相对温和，放量趋势明显，有望进一步扩大市场覆盖度，同时正在开展乌灵胶囊治疗老年痴呆的二次开发，目前处于药效学研究阶段，如果成功拓展适应症，有望打造第二增长曲线；2）灵泽片正处于快速放量期，2023 年灵泽片的销售金额同比增长 31.96%，2024 年Q1 灵泽片的销售金额同比增长24.33%，延续良好增长趋势；3）潜力品种灵莲花颗粒2024 年4 月1 日由处方药转换为非处方药，主要用于女性更年期综合征，有望快速打开OTC 市场。Incidents:
On April 18, 2024, the company released the 2023 Annual Report and the 2024 First Quarter Report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, achieved net profit of 383 million yuan, an increase of 40.27% over the previous year, and realized deducted non-net profit of 374 million yuan, an increase of 41.14% over the previous year. In 2024, Q1 achieved operating income of 673 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.75%, achieved net profit of 142 million yuan, an increase of 46.14% over the previous year, and realized deducted non-net profit of 144 million yuan, an increase of 50.01% over the previous year.
The amount of Wuling capsules collected and released is obvious, and the entire Wuling series market space is vast.
The company's Wuling series includes varieties developed and produced using Wuling bacteria powder as the core ingredient, such as Wuling capsules, Lingze tablets, and Linglian granules. According to the annual report, the company's Wuling series achieved revenue of 1,228 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 12.42% over the previous year, and a gross margin of 86.50%. According to the performance report, the sales volume of Wuling capsules increased 17.51% year on year in 2023, and the sales amount increased 9.12% year on year. The growth rate of sales amount was lower than the increase in sales volume, mainly due to the reduction in collection prices. According to investor exchange records, as of March 2024, Wuling capsules have entered centralized volume procurement in Guangdong Union, Beijing, Jiangsu, Fujian, Tianjin and other regions. With the expansion of the collection area, Wuling capsules are accelerating sales volume. According to the first quarterly report, the sales volume of Wuling capsules by Q1 in 2024 increased 43.86% year on year, and sales amount increased 37.25% year on year. We believe that the entire Wuling series market space is broad: 1) The price reduction of Wuling capsule collection is relatively moderate, and the volume trend is expected to further expand. At the same time, secondary development of Wuling capsules to treat Alzheimer's is being carried out. It is currently in the pharmacodynamics research stage. If indications are successfully expanded, it is expected to create a second growth curve; 2) Lingze tablets are in a rapid dosage period. The sales amount of Lingze tablets increased by 31.96% year-on-year in 2023. The sales amount of Lingze tablets increased 24.33% year on year in 2024, continuing the good growth trend; 3) On April 1, 2024, the potential variety Linglianhua granules were converted from prescription drugs to non-prescription drugs. They are mainly used for female menopausal syndrome, and are expected to quickly open up the OTC market.
Bailing tablets were affected by the price reduction in collection, and the sales volume of Bailing capsules can be expected after approval for marketing.
The company's Bering series includes Bering tablets and the Bering capsules that have just been approved for marketing, all fermented Cordyceps sinensis powder formulations. According to the annual report, the company achieved operating revenue of 202 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 21.23%. According to the first quarterly report, the sales amount of Bering tablets fell 18.98% year on year in Q1 in 2024. Judging from the volume-price relationship, the sales volume of Bering tablets increased 0.31% year on year in 2023, and the sales volume of Bering tablets increased 7.11% year on year in Q1 in 2024. The decline in sales amount was mainly due to the decline in collection prices. On December 29, 2023, the company approved the listing of Bailing capsules according to Tongfang's declaration of the same name. According to statistics from the Pharmaceutical Rongyun database, the sales volume of Bailing capsules in grade hospital channels reached 1,805 billion yuan in 2022, making it the type of Chinese medicine with the highest sales volume in grade hospitals. According to investor exchange records, Bailing Capsule is currently carrying out comprehensive preliminary preparations such as product pricing, packaging design, and marketing planning. We believe that after launch, Bering Capsule is expected to achieve sales volume and quickly reverse the negative impact of the decline in Bailing tablets on the company.
The increase in national standards and provincial standard filings for formula granules is expected to become an important growth point.
In 2023, the company's traditional Chinese medicine formula granule business achieved revenue of 41.88 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29.36%, mainly affected by factors such as standard transformation and alliance procurement. According to the annual report, as of April 18, 2024, the company has completed 335 national and provincial standard filings for traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, including 208 Chinese standard filings and 127 provincial standard filings. With the increase in the number of national and provincial standard varieties of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules registered, the company's revenue for traditional Chinese medicine formula granules increased by 332.99% year-on-year in Q1 in 2024, returning to a rapid development trend. According to the annual report, according to statistics from the China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center, China's traditional Chinese medicine formula granule market reached 25.245 billion yuan in 2021, with a broad market space. The company was originally one of the pilot enterprises for research on traditional Chinese medicine formula granules in Zhejiang Province. It has established a large-scale production line for formula granules. With the end of the industry pilot era, the company is expected to move from Zhejiang to the whole country, making the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule business an important growth point in the future.
Investment advice:
Based on the company's development plan, we assume that the revenue growth rates of the company's Wuling series from 2024 to 2026 will be 25%, 20%, and 15%, respectively, the revenue growth rates of the Bailing series will be 10%, 25%, and 25%, respectively, the revenue growth rates of Chinese herbal medicine tablets will be 20%, 20%, and the revenue growth rates of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules will be 50%, 40%, and 30% respectively. Based on the above assumptions, we expect the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 to be 2,385 billion yuan, 2,885 billion yuan, and 3.393 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 509 million yuan, 631 million yuan, and 755 million yuan respectively. Considering the clear development strategy and outstanding long-term growth, the company was given a PE valuation of 25 times in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 18.25 yuan for 6 months, and an investment rating of buy-A.
Risk warning: Risk of price fluctuations of Chinese herbal medicines, high risk of price reduction in collection, and patent risk related to the Bering series.
