Incident: The company released its 2023 annual report and achieved full-year revenue of 3.91 billion yuan, +17% year over year; net profit to mother of 500 million yuan, +11% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 480 million yuan, +7.6% year over year. Looking at Q4, the company achieved revenue of 1.17 billion yuan, +21%/+15% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 110 million yuan, -17%/-21% month-on-month, after deducting non-return net profit of 100 million yuan, or -25% month-on-month.
Tesla & Ideal contributes to revenue growth, and asset impairment calculation affects performance delivery. According to Marklines, domestic Tesla/ Ideal/ SAIC achieved sales volume of 95/38/3.51 million vehicles in 2023, compared with +33%/+182%/-1%. Tesla & Ideal's two major customers continued to gain strength, accounting for more than 70% of NEV customer revenue throughout the year. On the profit side, the company achieved gross margin/net margin of 23.2%/12.7% for the whole year, respectively, -1.3/0.6pcts, and a single Q4 gross margin/net profit margin of 20.6%/9.4%, and -3.1/-4.4pcts month-on-month. Among them, the decline in gross margin is expected to be caused by factors such as annual decline in products and depreciation of fixed assets; the decline in net interest rates is mainly due to the annual net profit of 78 million yuan affected by depreciation of various assets throughout the year.
Continuous optimization of expenses during the period: The company's annual sales/management/ R&D/finance expenses ratio was 0.3%/2.6%/3.3%/-0.3%, respectively, -0.01/+0.2/-0.4/-0.7pcts year-on-year.
Integrated die-casting continues to increase, making every effort to build a white body assembly supplier. In December 2023, the company officially put into operation the world's first Bühler 9200T die-casting machine equipment in Yancheng Duoli; at the beginning of this year, the company once again reached cooperation with Bühler Group to renew 4 9200T die-casting machine equipment. At present, the company's Changzhou Jintan auto parts and integrated chassis structural parts project has completed the underground engineering part. It is expected to enter the installation and commissioning production line in May, and trial production will begin in July. The project will add 8 integrated die-casting production lines and 5 stamping and welding production lines. After delivery, it is estimated that the annual production capacity of integrated die-casting will be increased by 600,000 pieces, and the annual production capacity of stamped welding parts will be increased by 10 million pieces.
Investment suggestion: As a leader in domestic automotive stamping parts, the company's high-quality customer bonding+management continues to be optimized, and integrated die casting is expected to start new growth. The company's revenue is expected to be 48.7/62.2/7.56 billion yuan in 2024-2026, +24%/+28%/+21% year-on-year, with net profit of 6.1/7.8/940 million yuan, +24%/+21% YoY, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Integrated die-casting business expansion falls short of expectations; downstream customer sales fall short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.